State of the Wizards: A cyber-roundtable discussion (Part 1)
A while back, I polled several prominent Wizards bloggers/internet personalities, asking them to answer some key questions facing the Wizards this offseason. Eventually, many of them got back to me, and now, their answers to each question will be posted here over the next few days.
Your participants:
- Kevin Broom, Real GM
- Jamie Mottram, Yahoo! Sports and Mister Irrelevant
- Jake Whitacre, Bullets Forever and Gilbertology
- I Watch the NBA, My Swog is Phenomenal
- Bobtimist Prime, DC Optimist
- Truthaboutit, Truthaboutit and Bullets Forever
- Kingly-1, Les Bullez
- Me, Bullets Forever
First question:
This was supposed to be the year the Wizards would rid themselves of the Cleveland curse. The Cavs were just two games better than the Wizards and had made a panic trade in the middle of the season. Meanwhile, the Wizards had persevered even with all the injuries and were as healthy as they had been all season. What went wrong? How did Cleveland win this series?
Answers are after the jump...
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Could (Should) The Wizards Go After Elton Brand?
There's been a couple comments on Truth About It and on Bullets Forever pertaining to the Wizards attempting to acquire Elton Brand, who has the choice to opt of the last year of his contract just like Gilbert Arenas. Well, let's explore some hypothetical scenarios.
1 day ago
Truth About It
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About that big lumbering Georgetown center
Normally, I wait to do draft prospect profiles until when we get closer to draft day, but since there's been a ton of discussion about Roy Hibbert, I'm doing this one early. -PM
It seems our community is divided over this local product. Some say he's a perfect fit , others say he's a big stiff. The connection is obvious. Besides being a local guy, he played in a form of the Princeton offense at Georgetown. Add that to the 7'2'' frame, and the intrigue is understandable.
Truthfully, there's a lot to like about Hibbert. Popular opinion of him has lessened because his 2007/08 season was worse than his 2006/07 one, but he still was pretty solid. He still had a 31.1 PER, which was good for 16th in the nation. His effective field goal percentage in 2006/07 was an insane 67 percent, but it was still a robust 61 percent in 2007/08. Likewise, his true shooting percentage was down from his 2006/07 year, but was still at 63 percent. No matter how you slice it, he was an incredibly efficient scorer, which bodes well considering he probably won't get too many shots here.
But what makes Hibbert particularly intriguing is his passing. Assists are not the best measure of one's passing proficiency, but it still is impressive that only starting guards Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp had higher assist ratios than Hibbert last year. Granted, it helps that Georgetown, as a team, had one of the highest assist ratios in the country, but Hibbert's ability to see the floor has to be a key factor for that.
What might be more impressive, however, is that Hibbert had the lowest turnover percentage on the team. He turned it over on just 15.6 percent of Georgetown's possessions, which doesn't seem so impressive, but it was still good enough to rank in the top 20 in the Big East last year.
It is interesting to note that Hibbert's efficiency decreased as his usage increased. This season, he used 17.4 percent of his team's possessions, up from 16 percent in 2006/07. That probably has a lot to do with the loss of Jeff Green, but it's definitely concerning to see Hibbert struggle when he received more shots. I always felt Green was really underrated, because he had a knack for getting Hibbert the ball in the right spots. Without his set-up man, Hibbert wasn't quite as effective.
Still, you have to like that he's a high efficiency player that can pass and doesn't turn the ball over very much. In that way, he fits in perfectly.
What's the problem? There are two criticisms of Hibbert that I think are fairly valid. The first is that he's not much of a rebounder. Some of you have cited his inability to grab double-digit rebounds in most of his games this season, which is unfair because not only does Georgetown play at an incredibly slow pace, but Hibbert himself only plays 26 minutes a game (we'll get to this in a second). Looking at his rebounding per-minute numbers, and he actually stacks up pretty well.
| Player | Rebound/40 | Rebound Rate |
| Kevin Love | 14.4 | 29 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 11.9 | 15.4 |
| Robin Lopez | 9.2 | 14.5 |
| Donte Greene | 7.4 | 17.9 |
| Kosta Koufus | 9.9 | 19 |
| Davon Jefferson | 9.0 | 18.7 |
| Joey Dorsey | 15.1 | 23.5 |
| Roy Hibbert | 9.7 | 18.2 |
The problem is that Hibbert's exactly the type of player who will struggle to grab rebounds in the pros. And this takes me to the second problem. To put it bluntly, Hibbert is slow and unathletic. It's not so easy to quantify this, but I don't think it's an accident that Georgetown has played at a really slow pace in each of his three seasons. Sure, John Thompson III is notorious for running a deliberate Princeton offense, but part of that was because it suited Hibbert's strengths. Just check out his weaknesses on his NBADraft.net card.
Limited athletically: Lacks quickness, speed in the open floor, and explosiveness ... Has trouble against big and athletic centers, must work on ball fakes and becoming less predictable offensively ... Runs very stiff, slow transitioning from half to full court ... Has decent shot blocking skills due to his size, but lacks great quickness and reflexes vertically ...
Now, granted, this all reeks of "your eyes can deceive you" analysis, but I think it translates in the fact that he only averages 26 minutes a game. Part of that is because he's really foul-prone, averaging 4.4 fouls per 40 minutes, but truthfully, that mark has been a lot worse (look at his fouls/40 in his freshman season). In reality, the dude just isn't in good enough shape to play more than 26 minutes a game. He's not going to play all that many minutes in the pros, but it's a completely different game athletically, and he needs work if he wants to keep up.
The verdict: If he's available at 18, I'd rather have him than any other big not named Kevin Love. But is he someone we should move up to get? No way, no way in hell. He has his strengths, but I see someone with very limited upside. He reminds me a lot of Brendan Haywood, actually, in that he has a reputation for being a bit soft. The difference is that Brendan is quite bulky, while Hibbert is just tall. Nice value at 18, but we shouldn't expect a difference-maker.
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Kevin Broom: Improved Wizards defense is a fallacy
Mr. Broom shows why we really weren't much better defensively this year. It's all stuff I've discussed too (though my calculations were off), but it only drives the point home further.
1 day ago
Pradamaster
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One more new SB Nation site to mention
Matt Moore, who you might know through his work on Hardwood Paroxysm and NBA FanHouse, is going to be heading up the new blog, which will focus on covering the "NBA Draft, D-League, minor league basketball, foreign prospects and the lunacy of GMs."
1 day ago
JakeTheSnake
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2001 NBA Draft: Where are they now?
A check up on the 29 players that were drafted ahead of Gilbert Arenas back in 2001. If you want to know what Rodney White and Kirk Haston are up to these days, it's a must read.
2 days ago
JakeTheSnake
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Butler's dunk on Kevin Martin was No. 1. Nick Young's dunk on LeBron was No. 2. Caron's game-winner in the playoffs is 3 following by Stevenson's game winner in New Orleans. At five, give me the win at Boston. At six, I'll take Haywood's classic response to LeBron James being a crybaby. At 7, I'll take the dunk Andres Nocioni threw down over Oleksiy Pecherov. When Chicago's game operations folks put a picture of Stewey from Family Guy over Pecherov's face on the replay, I lost it.
At 8, I'll go with the game itself and Butler's 40-point performace in Milwaukee on Jan. 27 (just an incredible game to see live). At 9, I'll go with two games in Miami when I got to watch the Heat dancers perform from only a few feet away. (The Miami Heat dancers: where amazing happens). And at 10, give me the Nov. 2 game in Boston when Kevin Garnett and the new-look Celtics made their first regular season appearance. Just a great atmosphere.
2 days ago
JakeTheSnake
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Wizards Future Part IVc: New Additions (Draft & Overseas)
Wizards Future Parts: I , II , III , IVa , IVb
A consensus is building that the heady move would be for the Wizards to trade the 18th pick in this year's draft, as making that next step doesn't likely involve getting younger. I'll go on record saying that I think Ernie Grunfeld should find a way to pull the trigger, even if it's just for a future first rounder. But just in case, here are some prospects who might suit the Wizards if they're on the clock.
D.J. Augustin (5-11, 175, 20 years)
Now, if the Wiz were were picking earlier, I wouldn't mind nabbing a point guard to groom. D.J. Augustin, out of Texas, is a smooth player. Many thought his stellar freshman year was simply a side-effect from playing with Kevin Durant. However, in Augustin's sophomore campaign his assists only went down 0.9 (also took 0.5 off his turnovers), and his points went up by 4.8. D.J. Augustin has a nice outside stroke and deceptive strength, but he got badly out-played by Memphis' Derrick Rose in the Elite Eight....a moot point as Augustin will probably go in the top 15. The Big Lead profiles D.J. Augustin.
Russell Westbrook (6-3, 187, 19 years)
This UCLA product could be available, but he is raw and not a true point guard. Nonetheless, his athleticism and handcuffing defense sticks in my mind. The fact that he seemingly came out of nowhere raises flags, but Westbrook sure did have a sick dunk on Cal this year. Nineteen years old tells me that he's not ready to immediately contribute, and the Wizards are living more in the now. ClipperBlog.com has a great profile on Westbrook.
Ty Lawson (5-11, 175, 20 years)
At UNC, I was mesmerized by Lawson's ability to push the ball in transition, creating for others with quickness. I'm not so sure that fits in with the Wizards style. As Prada has cited before, KnickerBlogger ranks the Wizards 26th in the league in pace, right in front of San Antonio, Portland, and Detroit. It would be nice to have a super quick guard (outside of a healthy Gilbert) to push the rock up the court, but not if the guy can't shoot....a perimeter game Lawson does not possess.
Chris Douglass-Roberts (6-7, 200, 21 years)
I gotta say I like this kid. His offensive game reminds me of Antawn Jamison's. Not so much AJ's hook shot / trick post-game, but more the ability to hit unconventional shots. CDR is fearless in going to the hoop and can be the Pad-Lock to Stevenson's Lock Smith. Jump shooting? Well, there's always Dave Hopla.
Brandon Rush (6-7, 211, 22 years)
Rush used Kansas' run in the NCAA tournament to prove that he was fully back from an ACL tear in May of 2007. The surgery has become so advanced and young kids bounce back....so no worries there. Rush brings a composed game and will hound the opposition on defense. He doesn't have a reputation of getting to the basket, and that reminds me of Caron Butler. 82games.com tells us that 73% of Caron Butler's attempts are jump shots, compared to say Richard Jefferson (62%) or Gerald Wallace (52%), or even Ron Artest (66%).
The DC Pro Sports Report NBA Mock Draft Database mentions many other possibilities for the Wizards....such as Robin Lopez , brother of Brook (the Lopez twins are a little too into Michael Jackson for comfort ). Or JaVale McGee out of Nevada. Or Darrell Arthur out of Kansas. Or Marreese Speights out of Florida. Or, etc.
I'm not as knowledgeable on these big men. The prospects above are just something to get the conversation started....as I'm sure there will be many future draft discussions. Drop your thoughts/suggestions in the comments.
Stay-Aways
I've heard the clamoring for Roy Hibbert. His defense sounds nice in theory (yea, yea...Princeton Offense too), but in practice, he is too lumbering and mechanical to be able to get between spots in Randy Ayers' match-up-hybrid-zone defense. Hibbert is supposed to be a hard worker and a willing to learn, and that's why I could be wrong about him. But in the end, I don't see him improving the quickness needed to be in Eddie Jordan's system. Does anyone else feel that Hibbert would be Peter John Ramos minus an inch?
I'll be curious to see Prada's upcoming profile on Roy Hibbert.....like me, he seems to think the guy's a stiff, but his analysis might change my mind, as well as his.
Right now, 20% of the NBA mock drafts in the DC Pro Sport Report database have the Wizards selecting Roy Hibbert.
Chase Budinger. This one should be obvious. He makes Gilbert Arenas look like Ron Artest on defense.
Overseas Prospects
Marcus Haislip (Overseas Free Agent) 6-10, 230
Remember this guy? He blew up coming out of the University of Tennessee and was taken in the lottery by the Milwaukee Bucks with the 13th pick in 2002. The GM of the Bucks back then? Our Ernie Grunfeld. Of course, Marcus has since been considered a bust…I’m sure that Ernie can attest as to why Haislip’s initial NBA experience was a failure. But what matters now is what improvements he has made on and off the court. Haislip's last flirtation with the NBA was in the summer league with the Timberwolves in 2005. Since, he’s played two seasons in Turkey and this past season in Spain. His Euro resume includes: 2 time Turkish all-star, ’07 Euroleague all-import team, ’07 All-Euroleague honorable mention. However, in the end, Haislip might just be an older Andray Blatche who plays more on the perimeter.
- Plus: Freak athlete…runs the court, blocks shots, patrols the paint, the will to defend, versatility, ability to play outside…..and he can shoot better than 75% on FTs.
- Minus : Fundamentals, Shot Selection, Decision Making (ouch…these were his downsides from the beginning).
Ramunas Siskauskas (Overseas Free Agent) 6-6, 203, 29 years old
This guy ain’t your father’s Sarunas Jasikevicius or your mother’s Marco Belinelli. Rated the #1 Overseas Free Agent prospect by Draft Express, Ramunas is a Lithuanian bruiser who can play three positions. He various internet profiles recount tales of versatility, ball handling, smarts (experienced as he’s 29 years old), quickness, excellent defense….and he can shoot the hell out the ball, typically 40%+ from long distance. He is currently leading one of the best non-NBA teams out there, CSKA Moscow. The more I read about the guy, the more I fall in love with him….and thus, the more unattainable he becomes. Can D-Songaila recruit his fellow countryman?
Dimitris Diamantidis (Overseas Free Agent) 6-5, 215, 28 years old
This Greek is ranked the #3 overseas prospect by Draft Express. It seems like people have a hard time explaining his offense and he appears to do a lot of things "okay" – but as Draft Express puts it, he earns his paycheck with his defense. His nickname is the Octopus because of his long arms.
- Plus: Has been named one of the top Euroleague defenders, Willing to distribute, Active on D, Energy, Court Vision, Intelligence.
- Minus: Not much of an offensive player (mostly a spot up shooter, which actually might be good – averaged 8.5 ppg and 43.5% from beyond the arc), He might not be ready to give the NBA a shot (he’s signed to his team through 2010), Can be considered a risk as his game might not translate.
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As the draft gets closer, after we've found out the lottery order and whether or not the Wizards have traded #18, we can begin to discuss late-draft sleepers. Feel free to drop any ideas on the next Arenas-esque 2nd rounder in the comments as well.
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Playoff rumbings
Some assorted thoughts on this year's playoffs:
- The Wright Pick: Whenever I watch New Orleans play, I can't help but be intrigued by the play of Julian Wright. Coming into the playoffs, the biggest knock on New Orleans was its lack of a bench, and while they acquired Bonzi Wells, they still were very thin, particularly up front. Wright's only played about 11 minutes a game, but he's made a huge difference defensively and offensively. He's probably the only player who has actually realized that Manu Ginobili is, in fact, left-handed, and should be forced to his right. Better yet, he's actually hitting the outside jumper, which was supposed to be the knock against him. I remember championing him as a very underrated prospect last year, and hoped against hope that he'd fall to the Wizards. Unfortunately, he didn't. Just imagine how much of an asset he would be on this team, who desperately needs a backup behind Caron.
- Want some cheese with that whine, Gregg: I've always respected the Spurs game, and always felt they got a bad reputation as a boring team. With guys like Parker and Ginobili, I don't see how you can be boring. I think the disdain for them comes from them being so good for so long. Still, I've grown very tired of Gregg Popovich in this playoffs. Whether it's the complaining over the fire incident in Game 1, or the general "Fuck you" attitude towards reporters, he's just come across as a creaky old man. But what pissed me off even more is that he said the Hornets ran a "organized playground" system. Really? First of all, Byron Scott is the Coach of the Year for a reason, and it's not because he just lets his players play. Second of all, the Hornets primarily run pick and rolls and isolations for Paul or David West. The Spurs? They mostly run pick and rolls and isolations for Ginobili or Duncan. I suppose the difference is that Duncan operates in the low post, while West is in the high post, but how is that any less of an "organized playground" system. Truthfully, both teams run intricate offenses, and neither runs an "organized playground."
- Role guys: As I see Cleveland push the Celtics to 2-2, I can't help but be shocked at how all their role players are playing over their heads. LeBron hasn't done much, yet all their other guys have played incredibly. It makes me wonder how they can be incorporated so seamlessly, while our rhythm gets messed up when our stars return. Also, I'm tired of people calling Mike Brown a bad coach. Does he struggle to run a system around LeBron? Definitely. But the Cavs defend like crazy, and it's not really Brown's fault that LeBron, despite being nearly 260 pounds, can't post me up.
- Capped-out Magic: Orlando's departure means the Southeast Division won't be represented in the Eastern Conference finals for the second straight season. It also gives me hope, because unless Otis Smith pulls a rabbit out of his hat, this might be the best Orlando has to offer in the future. About the only person from which we can expect internal development is Dwight Howard. Hedo Turkoglu isn't going to be any better than he was this season, and one could legitimately argue he was the only reason Orlando improved this season. What you see is what you're going to get with Rashard Lewis, and he's not going anywhere anytime soon. Meanwhile, Orlando still needs a power forward, a backup point guard, and another big, and their salary situation isn't getting better anytime soon.
- Home court: I'm honestly tired of hearing about the significance of home court in these playoffs. You know why it's making such a difference? Because these teams are very equal. You have a 57-win Lakers team playing a 54-win Jazz team with a high point differential in one semifinal. In another, you have two 56-win teams battling each other. The Celtics' road woes are confusing, but Cleveland is playing far better than a 45-win team right now, and the Celtics are playing far worse. When two teams are that equal in quality, something like the home court advantage is going to make a big difference. It doesn't mean that home court advantage, in and of itself, is suddenly becoming more significant.
- Note to Reggie Miller: The Hornets are not an up-and-down team .
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An apology and what's coming
Folks, sorry for the lack of posting on my front recently. I actually was in New York these past couple days, because I am working on a story about (former) New York Mets pitcher Nelson Figueroa (a Brandeis grad). I had a press pass at Shea Stadium for Monday's game against the Nats, so I was able to interview him after the game. (In case you were wondering, I was right there for the "softball girls" comment).
Anyway, here's a look ahead to what we're going to have here in the next couple of days. Jake and Truth have picked up the slack, but I'll be pulling my weight soon enough.
- Draft Profile: Roy Hibbert. There's been a lot of talk about him, since he's a center that ran the Princeton in college, but just how good is he. I'll confess that my eyes see him as a stiff, but I want to take a closer look at his numbers and the opinions of other scouts.
- Wizards roundtable discussion: I polled as many bloggers as I could find and asked them several questions about this team. The answers will come in a series of upcoming posts.
- Player evaluations: They're coming folks, don't worry. I'll get started on them next week.
- Any other suggestions? You can always start a FanPost thread about anything you'd like, but if there's something you'd really like to see in a front-page post, let me know.
I'll be back later with that draft profile. Pinky swear.
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