Most of the time when you read stuff about the Wizards, there are certain words that you know are going to be assosciated with specific players on the team.  It's almost impossible to find a sentence with Antawn Jamison's name in it that doesn't also include the word veteran.  With Gilbert Arenas, you know you're going to see the word explosive somewhere in his description.  Caron always gets the tough label.  And of course, with Andray Blatche, you know you're going to hear the word potential used.

(AP - Manuel Balce Ceneta)

We've all seen flashes of Blatche is capable of.  You don't see a lot of guys at 6-11 that can shoot and handle the ball like Blatche does.  But his unique skill set isn't his only asset.  He had nine double-doubles last season and only 4 players averaged more blocks per 36 than he did last year.  Given that he just turned 22 last week, it looks like many more productive seasons are on the way as he starts realizing the potential everyone talks about.

While there's no debate among Wizard fans about whether or not Andray has potential or not, there has been a lot discussion regarding whether or not he'll ever realize it.  We can talk all day long about whether or not he has what it takes to make the most of his considerable gifts, but we don't get into a lot of discussion about how good he could be if he put it all together.  So for this week's edition of Pollin', we're strictly focusing on what we think Andray's ceiling is, not whether or not he can actually reach it.  Here are ceiling levels:

• MVP Candidate: To reach this level you're looking for someone that's the unquestioned top player on a strong team over a good stretch of time with at least 7 All-Star appearances and at least one or two serious bids for MVP.  Think Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber, Dirk Nowitzki.
  
• Perennial All-Star: For this level we're talking about someone with 3 or more All-Star appearances, that's the top player on a decent team or a very good second option on a very good team.  Think Jermaine O'Neal, Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Marion.
• Borderline All-Star: Here we're looking at someone that makes it to the All-Star game once or twice at most.  Unless they're mired on a team in complete rebuild mode, they're operating as a second or third banana.  Think Shareef Abdur-Raheem, Theo Ratliff, Jamal Mashburn, 
• Good, but not quite an All-Star: Barring a luck selection in a down year, these guys won't ever make an All-Star team, but they're certainly above average players at their position.  Think Lamar Odom, Marcus Camby, Vlade Divac.
• Solid, but not spectacular: These are guys that are going to be either average starters or above-average backups.  Unless they find themselves on a perennial contender, they'll end up fading into obscurity, even if they have a longer than normal career.
  

Personally, I'd slot him in the Borderline All-Star range, but on the right day I could be talked into slotting him as a Perennial All-Star type talent especially if he gets traded.  But what do you think?  Is Andray the next big thing, or are we just drooling too much over a tall guy with strong putback skills?

A lot of the focus from Gilbert's radio appearance has been on his talk of possibly doing a reality TV Show.  But since that's probably a bad idea anyway, instead let's focus on this exchange about their opinions of the team's uniforms.  Since they obviously got the idea to ask the question from us...or something like that.

In case you can't listen, here are the highlights:

• Gilbert likes the gold uniforms much, much more than the blue ones.
• He'd like to see the team go to a red, white, and blue color scheme if not re-adopt the Bullets package altogether.
• He says that "the girls" (the Mystics) want to go red, white, and blue as well, even though they've never had those colors in their team history.
• He says that the team is going to wearing Zephyrs throwbacks next season, so get used to seeing this next season:

Of course, the shorts will be longer, but you get the idea of what they'll look like.  If anyone has some more pictures of the Chicago Zephyr uniforms, please leave a comment or e-mail us.  For now, let's just hope that Gilbert can use the $16 million that he passed up as leverage to get the team to go back to the red, white, and blue in the not-so-distant future.

With little going on with the Wizards, I've been trying to keep tabs on what little NBA tidbits are out there.  The major story regarding the NBA itself right now is the restricted free agency "negotiation" of Chicago's Ben Gordon, which has been well-documented by Blogabull.  There's too much to take in it one sentence, but to summarize: Gordon rejects 5/50 last offseason, Bulls re-sign Luol Deng, Gordon says he wants to be paid like the leading scorer on the team, Bulls offer 6/59 but no more because of the luxury tax, Gordon talks about how he and the Bulls have no future. 

Gordon's status on the Bulls seems kind of similar to Gilbert Arenas', though Arenas is clearly the better and more important player.  Both are seen as shoot-first gunners who aren't really point guards, but are too "small" to be shooting guards.  Both had their reputations hurt last season -- Arenas because the Wizards did fairly well with him injured, Gordon because he had his worst season and the Bulls plummeted.  Both were seen as focal points of their teams' rebuilding projects, but in light of recent events, some were calling both expendable and unworthy of a long-term commitment. 

Yet where the Wizards stroked Gilbert's ego and got him to take less money than necessary, the Bulls have taken the hard line on Gordon.  They aren't budging on their 6 year/59 million dollar offer, which I find somewhat interesting because while such a contract puts them up against the luxury tax, such considerations didn't stop them from dolling out large contracts for Andres Nocioni, Kirk Hinrich and Deng.  In response, Gordon has made some ridiculous public statements, saying he won't take the qualifying offer even though there's really no alternative.

Whether the Bulls or Wizards handled their negotiations correctly isn't exactly the point of this post (I'm definitely wary of paying Gordon as much as he seems to want), but I've always wondered what would have happened if the Bulls made it clear to Gordon that he was, in different words, "their guy," as the Wizards did with Arenas.  Would Gordon have dropped his "pay me like I'm the leading scorer" edict and taken less money if he felt more loved?  If the Bulls didn't keep pulling him on and off the bench, would he have been more inclined to take an offer like 6/59? 

Better yet, what if the Wizards had adopted the Bulls' stance on Arenas?  What if Ernie Grunfeld didn't stroke Gilbert's ego by immediately offering the max and pleading with him to take a bit of a discount?  Would Gilbert have still been here?  Would he have taken Golden State's max contract offer and left?  Would he have made several public statements, but ultimately re-sign and use it as motivation? 

No matter what, I'd rather have my guy locked up, even if it means paying him a little more than he might be worth.  In the short run, if the Bulls lose Gordon, they will be a worse team because there is nobody who can score.  In the long run, maybe they'll be better, but that's asking for two more years of what-ifs.  The Wizards don't have to worry about what-ifs necessarily, and for that, I'm happy Ernie negotiated in the way he did.

Editor's Note: Part V of our Summer Project.  Previous profiles are of Robert Pack, Jim McIlvane, LeDell Eackles, and Tim Legler.

This profile looks back on a player from the 2004-05 squad that made it to the second round of the playoffs.  Your writer is JakeTheSnake.

In my closet you'll find three Wizard jerseys.  Obviously, it would hard to really write effectively over here if I didn't own a Gilbert Arenas #0 jersey.  I've also got a Antawn Jamison jersey that I was fortunate enough to get on sale right after Christmas.  Then there's a Wizards jersey with a number 1 on it.  It doesn't belong to Nick Young and sadly, it's not a Rod Strickland jersey.  No, my Wizards #1 jersey is a Jared Jeffries special.  If you don't believe me, here's your visual evidence:

Continue reading this post »

I'll be honest, I really don't how to preface this post, so let's jump past the thin candy shell and right into the ooey-gooey chocolate center of the post shall we?

WHAT THE WIZARDS WOULD BE IF THEY WERE CANDY

Gilbert Arenas = Pixy Stix: The complaints about both are the same: Very sweet, good for a quick thrill, not a whole lot of filling substance.  Yet you rarely see fans of either complain about feeling empty.

Andray Blatche = Twizzlers: Both could benefit from being a little thicker.

Dee Brown = Skittles: In the interest of full disclosure, nothing about Dee Brown's game reminds me of Skittles, but whenever I watch him, he reminds me of a hyper kid running around after eating a whole bag Skittles.

Caron Butler = Snickers: With a Snickers bar, you're getting a nice, diverse package of chocolate, nougat, peanuts, and caramel.  Caron also gives you a little bit of everything and puts it into a sweet package that everyone can enjoy.  (Not to mention, that every so often you see both wrapped in gold.  But let's not talk about the alternate jerseys right now.)

Antonio Daniels = Hershey's: Sure, there's stuff out there that might taste a little better, or have some fancier packaging, but these two give you what you're looking for every single time.

Brendan Haywood = Peanut Brittle: At first look, they both look kind of clumsy.  Brendan isn't exactly Pete Maravich and peanut brittle looks like a rejected batch of semi-processed peanut butter.  But when you get down to it, you realize that both are pretty doggone good.

Antawn Jamison = M&M's: A timeless classic.  And like Jamison's shot, you can find M&M's in just about every variety imaginable.

JaVale McGee = Bacon Bar: At first, they both sound kind of gross (Chocolate flavored bacon?  An athletic 7-footer that has 3 pt. range but struggles with rebounding?) but they're both intriguing enough to make you want to try it out at least once.

Dominic McGuire = Shock Tarts: Need I say more?

Oleksiy Pecherov = Laffy Taffy: They give you some flavor, and they're good for a chuckle.  What more could you ask for?

Darius Songaila = Twix: What? He likes things dipped in chocolate.

DeShawn Stevenson = Everlasting Gobstopper: You can try to wear them down, but you know at the end of the day that they're too durable to let something like saliva or a knee injury keep them from playing.

Etan Thomas = Gourmet Chocolate: It's a decent product, just a little more pricey than it should be.

Nick Young = Airheads: Being the youthful player that he is, Nick Young makes some decisions on the court that make you wonder what's going on in his mind.  But then you remember that one day the maturity will come and then we can stop wondering about his head and we can devote all of our focus to his air.

(language NSFW)

Previously:

• Etan Thomas
• Oleksiy Pecherov
• Dominic McGuire
• Nick Young
• Andray Blatche
• Roger Mason
• Darius Songaila
• Antonio Daniels
• DeShawn Stevenson
• Brendan Haywood

Stats: Per-game: 32.7 minutes, 19.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.8 steals in 13 games.

Per-36: 21.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.9 steals.

Percentages: 39.8 FG%, 77.1 FT%, 28.2 3PT%, 45.4 eFG%, 52.9 TS%

Advanced (explanations): 18.2 PER, 27.4 AST%, 17.1 TO%, 31.1 UsgR, 102 ORtg, 109 DRtg, -1.5 WSAA (win score above average).

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Pradamaster: These evaluations are supposed to be about the players' season, with a quick glimpse into what it means for the future.  With Gilbert Arenas, though, it's obviously not that simple.  So I'll try to sum up the Arenas package, trying hard not to contradict what I've previously written.  Fair warning: what results is pretty long-winded.

This was a horrible year for Gilbert, no doubt about it.  He spent the offseason rushing his rehabilitation, playing pickup games in Barry Farms when he should have been more careful.  He clearly looked wrong at the beginning of the season, yet Eddie Jordan played him 40 minutes a game.  Then, of course, he went out again and the team proceeded to succeed without him until Caron Butler got hurt.  Arenas eventually delayed his comeback until there were only five games left in the season, choosing instead to do interviews and write blog posts about his contract status.  In his first game back, he didn't even tell his coach he wanted to play. 

He wasn't much better in the playoffs.  Save for a great Game 1 in a losing effort and the game-tying shot in Game 4, he was a non-factor because of the knee,.  One could argue that he messed up the team's rhythm.  For better or worse, he's linked to DeShawn Stevenson and his trash-talking, though I still am not convinced that DeShawn's words made a significant difference in the series or that Arenas did much to fuel the fire (all he said was the team wanted to play Cleveland).  He decided on his own once again to sit out Game 5, only the most important game of the season.

I could go on, but I think everyone gets the point.  His image was shattered, no doubt, and there were questions about his maturity.

To me, though, there's a major difference between image and performance.  It's kind of like how Dennis Rodman was chastised for being such a lunatic off the court by those who worried it would make a major difference in his play on the court, yet he may have been the best role player of all time.  One's image is always a flawed sense of both their reality and their basketball abilities.  Nobody really knows Gilbert Arenas, much less bloggers like myself.  I never really cared about what he says in the press or what he does with his free time, so long as he doesn't jeopardize his game or his teammates (and I'm not talking about guarantees).  (I love True Hoop, but why is the second part of this post titled this way?)  Essentially, what I'm saying is that I don't really have a problem with Arenas badmouthing Milwaukee, for example. 

The problem, of course, is that Arenas' image did affect his teammates and his game this season.  It affected his game in the sense that he never would have re-injured his knee if he approached rehabilitation like any normal athlete.  It's effect on his teammates is debatable, but there's written evidence that it pissed off Antawn Jamison during the playoffs.  (Calling Arenas a cancer, of course, is silly because there's almost no evidence that Arenas' teammates have asked him to tone down, save for that column).  Then, of course, there's the effect of Arenas' eccentricity on Eddie Jordan.  Before the season even started, Arenas was upset at his coach, though it seemed he had gotten over that.  Arenas' unconventinality caused him to both insert himself into the lineup (against Milwaukee at the end of the season) AND remove himself from active duty (Game 5) without his coach knowing well before game time.  That's a huge sign of disrespect.

To his credit, though, Arenas seems to understand the distinction, judging from his press conference comments today.  If we're looking for a "maturity growth" in Gilbert, that's the distinction that needs to be made clear.  Gilbert shouldn't stop being Gilbert, he should just be Gilbert while respecting those he works with.

So unless one wants to rehash the debate about his new contract (which you're free to do, I just won't make my case again) that leaves the on-court Gilbert Arenas to discuss.  Obviously, any future success is tied to his knee rehab.  So far, he seems to be getting it right, and so long as he does, there shouldn't be any problems.  He should have his explosion back, and even if he doesn't, it might encourage him to use fewer possessions to help the team's rhythm.

Now, to the question of how Arenas needs to adjust.  My position has always been that he doesn't need to change as much as some are saying.  To rehash: the Wizards treaded water (say it how it is, folks) this season because their defense was better up until mid-January, Brendan Haywood finally broke out, Caron Butler improved his efficiency and shooting range and not necessarily his usage, Antawn Jamison devoted himself to rebounding and post play and the role players provided a major lift.  Defensively, Arenas is certainly terrible, but he's hardly the only one who stunk on that end in year's past (and besides, the Wizards weren't much better defensively anyway).  The Wizards did not stay where they were because of things like "better ball movement" or "less antics."  ("Better ball movement" just means they went to more half-court Princeton sets, and the Princeton can look beautiful if properly executed).  Looking at the list of things that made a difference this season, it's hard to believe that Arenas' absense could be directly responsible for all of them.  Perhaps the simple answer is that the rest of the team improved their own games.

Automatically, Arenas' presence is going to improve several things.  For one, it'll give the Wizards the ability to fast break and strike at any point.  Without Arenas, the Wizards almost exclusively played in half-court Princeton sets, and no team saw their pace change nearly as much as the Wizards' did from 2007 to 2008.  That's good because the majority of the Wizards' key rotation players know the Princeton extremely well, having practiced it for at least two years, but it's bad because once a team figures out how to stop it, there's nobody who can create other than Butler, who struggled with the role at times during the season.  More importantly, Arenas, so long as he's healthy, provides a guy who can create offense out of nothing, mostly by getting to the free throw line.  Getting to the line is something Butler has never been capable of doing like Arenas can. 

That said, however, it would help if Arenas ended fewer possessions.  His usage rate has climbed significantly since Larry Hughes left in 2005, culminating in a crazy 31.4 rate in 2007.   Not surprisingly, 2006/07 was also Arenas' worst shooting season since his first year in D.C. in 2003/04.  With all the individual improvement of the guys around him, Arenas doesn't need to take so many shots.  He can rely on others to carry the load, which should make him fresher defensively.  Mind you, I'm not saying he should pass more necessarily (I think his passing is fine.  Not great, but it's okay), I'm saying he should not end as many possessions with pull-up 18-footers with 16 on the shot clock.  Run the offense a bit and you'll get something better.

He also needs to improve defensively, but that was always the case, and really the entire team needs to improve defensively.  

Otherwise, he should be himself.  Don't play passively, because he'll take himself out of the game.  Still be Gilbert off the court, but don't let your eccentricity undermine your game, your teammates or the coach.  End fewer possessions and allow yourself to use the Princeton to make your life easier.

See, I think Arenas is capable of doing anything offensively.  He can take over games, but he can also lay low when he wants to.  His passing skills are underrated and he knows how to cut in the Princeton.  He can hit jumpers from anywhere on the floor and he can drive to the basket and finish at any angle.  

The challenge now is to do all those things at the right time during the flow of the game.  It's the challenge every superstar faces at some point.  How Arenas fares with it will determine whether re-upping him was the right move.

JakeTheSnake: I suppose when you look back at Gilbert's season, you really need to start back last June when he decided to announce that he was going to opt out of his contract at the end of the season.  Up until that point Gilbert was the lovable, high-scoring guard with the weird quirks and the funny blog that brought the Wizards back into the playoff picture.  Once he made it clear that he was looking to get a better contract, suddenly he became a shotjacking cancer that can't get past the first round.

Of course, his performance this season didn't do much to change anyone's opinion of him in one way or the other.  There simply isn't any evidence from this year that you can use to make a judgment on him one way or another.  The injuries and the lack of PT with the rest of the team was just too much.  With an off-season to get healthy, he should be able to take care of both issues.  Even if his knee robs him of some of his burst, I'm confident that he'll be able to adjust the rest of his game to accommodate for that shortcoming. 

Why so confident?  Well, I've got a few reasons:

1. I write at Gilbertology, I have to be confident.
2. From the little we saw last season, Gilbert showed that he could still the run the court well, so he's still a threat on the fast break, even if he doesn't have the same explosive burst in the half-court that he once did. 
   
3. Despite his injuries, Gilbert posted the best rebound and assist percentages during his time with the Wizards this season.  The summer should give him ample time to get back in the flow with everyone and bring his shooting percentages back to what we're used to.
4. The third time is the charm with rehab.  Right?

Certainly, Gilbert's season wasn't one to remember.  He couldn't hit shots, he wasn't in rhythm offensively or defensively, and occasionally he could be a distraction.  But I'm not going to fret over an injury plagued season as we move forward.  In a lot of ways, Gilbert finds himself in the same spot that Amare Stoudemire did a couple of years ago.  Both players had knee problems that robbed them of most of their season while their teams continued to play well without them, leading people to ask if they were better off without them.  When Amare returned, he lost a little bit of his athleticism, but it made him a more complete player.  I think you'll see that Gilbert will follow in suit.

Truthaboutit: This past season provided me, along with others, a lion's share of negative thoughts about Gilbert Arenas. Unfortunately, many of those others allowed such ideas to consume the previous good will built by Agent Zero to the point where they no longer wanted Gilbert on their team. I will not allow myself to forget what I've learned from the past.

For one, I'm a believer in Gilbert Arenas. He came from humble beginnings and has successfully overcome every real and perceived slight handed down upon him. I remember seeing Gilbert Arenas play live in college from the opponent's end of the court way back in December of 2000. That day, Mississippi State defeated 10th-ranked Arizona, in Tuscon, in 'Zona's own Fiesta Bowl Basketball Classic tournament, for the first time in its 16 year history. That Wildcat team featured the likes of Arenas, Richard Jefferson, Jason Gardner, Loren Woods, Luke Walton, Eugene "High Socks & 'Fro" Edgerson, and team leading scorer, Michael Wright. Gilbert dropped 14 points, but I barely remember him being on the court......he surely didn't live up to scouting report expectations. Gilbert Arenas? Who's that guy? Lo and behold.....almost seven years later.......I'm writing blog letters to the guy.

Even back in December of '07, when the Wizards were 8-5 and I was imploring for Gilbert to learn from his striving teammates, negativity filled the air, especially on the Washington Post's Wizards Insider. The Wizards are no doubt better without Gilbert Arenas and Ernie Grunfeld should immediately get rid of the bum for a bag of nickels and a pouch of Big League Chew......I'm paraphrasing what "they" were saying. The argument continued until the end of the 07-08 season and beyond. Should I get into it now? Nope, not gonna do it.

I'm glad to have Gilbert Arenas back on my hometown team. As much as I was frustrated with the antics, the distractions, the B.S. talking, the non-communication with Eddie Jordan, I always wanted Arenas to return to DC.....I was still going to vote for Nacho.

As recounted on Bullets Forever, most DC blogger/MSM types are amicable towards the resigning of Arenas...even though all could agree on desires for Gilbert to take even less money. The outsiders, they critically predict years of mediocrity for the Wizards as a result of the new six-year $111 million commitment. Eff 'em.....they're not with us and their not joining us. And those insiders....fans of the Bullets/Wizards....who were (and still are) against the return of Gil?....Oh well. I'm sure they'll claim that they had a seat on the bandwagon from the beginning if the team is doing well, and if not, they will be the first to proclaim their clairvoyance with a well placed "I told you so." How convenient.

I would be disregarding natural human instinct if I said that I didn't have doubts about giving so much money to a player recovering from a couple knee surgeries. But Gil is a hard worker (if anything, too hard as he displayed in overdoing rehab after the first surgery), and the field of medicine has advanced as the devastating consequences of knee surgery have decreased.

I'd rather take a chance on Arenas than deal with the heartache and regret of him being a star somewhere else. I may not be as perpetually sanguine as the DC Optimist, but I do anticipate a bright future for these Washington Wizards. I've got high hopes that Arenas has learned more this past season than he ever has from being part of a team before. Hope that he's acquired a balance between killer instinct and the ability to defer, a balance between antics and seriousness. Hope that he's heeded the words of leadership put forth by Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison towards the end of the season. Hope that Gilbert Arenas is a winner and not just another performer.

As Dan pointed out this morning, Gilbert's press conference for his new contract is happening today.  When he did his press conference the first time around, he made the bold prediction that the Wizards would make the playoffs.  It took him a year longer than he anticipated, but he did fulfill his promise and has now done so for the last four years.

Now, as we come to Gilbert's second big press conference as a Wizard, we ask you, what do you think the chances are that Gilbert makes another bold prediction for the next six seasons that he's in D.C.?  Will he say that he's going to win MVP?  Is he going to drop the F-Bomb?  Will he decalre the Jeremy Shockey trade the move that puts the Saints over the top?  Not if he has a brain.  

Your prediction about a prediction is up to you.

I have here in my hand a list of two hundred and five people that were known to the Secretary of State as being members of the Communist Party er...the latest issue of SLAM, that has the feature on DeShawn Stevenson.  As was mentioned in their preview, DeShawn did let his mouth rip.  It didn't reach overrated levels, but it's worth quoting on a blog that's specific to the team he plays for.

On the LeBron-DeShawn feud:

With the thing I said about LeBron, that's the way we do it.  If I feel like he attacked me, I'ma attack him back.  I don't care how big you are.  I feel like he's an awesome player, but I feel like if you attack me, do it like I do it.  Say it out loud.  Don't be one of those scary girls and say it behind closed doors where nobody's going to hear you.  If you don't like something I do, say it out loud so we can deal with it as two men.

On Gilbert's comeback late in the season:

When Gilbert [Arenas] came back for the Playoffs--this is no knock on him--it kind of messed up that rhythm we had going in the regular season.  Gilbert's minutes were limited.  We tried to bring him off of the bench, so we could save him for the fourth, but it was hard to play a type of player like that for 20 minutes.

On Gilbert's decision to opt out (keep in mind that he said this before Gilbert re-signed):

Gil runs that city.  It would be stupid on his part to leave.  You've got a town that's got your back.  To go somewhere else and start over is going to be pretty hard.  You're starting from scratch.  Nobody [else] cares about the game-winners or none of that.

DeMarco Williams did a tremendous job on the article and I encourage everyone to go check it out.  The pics of DeShawn's epic back tattoo are worth the cost of the magazine in and of itself.  Also, the piece provides an important and much needed update on the beard-growing bet between DeShawn and Drew Gooden.

This is officially the last front-page post about Gilbert Arenas' new contract.  Jake's take is here, my rambling thoughts are here, and your takes are either here already or waiting to be placed there.  But what do other key voices think of the contract?  We know what John Hollinger thinks.  What about others?

Michael Wilbon: For 111 Million, We Need More

Sooner rather than later we're going to come to the no-more-excuses portion of the program. This is the part where the key Wizards are expected to stay healthy the way highly paid stars ought to, where they actually play the kind of defense contenders play, where multiple all-stars gang up on supernovas like LeBron the way the Celtics did.

But in order for all these complementary players, role players and reserves to matter the way they should, the star has to be in place. That's the way it has been and probably always will be in the NBA. The Wizards have secured that player in their estimation. Arenas has no upcoming opt-out. There's no more testing the free agent waters. He is being paid an amount of money that doesn't seem discounted to the rest of us. It's time for him to listen to his coach, learn how to best use his teammates and take the Wizards deeper into May basketball, if not June. If he does that, he'll be worth $100 million-plus. If he doesn't, he won't be.

Tom Knott: Millions of Questions in Keeping Agent Zero

Gilbert Arenas was a difficult contract call and not merely because of a left knee that has undergone two surgical procedures in the last 15 months.

The rehabilitation of the left knee could be the least of the concerns with Arenas.

If Ernie Grunfeld is willing to bet $111 million on the complete physical recovery of Arenas, that is persuasive enough.

Grunfeld did not throw a bundle of the franchise's money to placate the team's fan base.

Those same fans who love Arenas today will not be so loving in the seasons ahead if the Wizards remain unable to win more than 41-45 games a season.

As it is, Grunfeld knows the team is mired in the one-and-done cycle of the playoffs, with injuries being the mitigating circumstance the last two springs. He knows a playoff berth no longer meets the expectations of a region that is desperate to have a serious winner in the NBA.

And he knows that anointing Arenas as the player who will lead the Wizards there is a loaded proposition.

George Solomon: Forget Contracts, Pollin is Only Interested in One Thing: An NBA Title

Still, some Wizards insiders questioned whether the team was financially prudent in signing the 26-year-old Arenas to such an extraordinary contract considering Arenas has had surgery on his left knee in each of the last two seasons. While a fan favorite and legitimate all-star when healthy, he was considered an erratic distraction by some last season. "Gil does need to mature," Jamison said. "Cut out some of the crazy stuff."

None of that deterred Pollin and Grunfeld from retaining Arenas and Jamison to remain with Caron Butler and the rest of the cast for a fifth consecutive playoff run and a chance at loftier goals.

Dave Johnson on WTOP.com: Christmas in July

Gilbert has come out of his shell since then, and has given this town some incredible sports memories. Now with Arenas, the Wizards have at least a chance of bringing this town another NBA title.

The Wizards without Arenas showed this year they could put together a little over 40 wins. With a healthy Arenas, along with Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, the Wizards have already shown they can contend for the Eastern Conference title.

Kelly Dwyer:

This is a team content with putting rear-ends in the seats, grabbing some postseason gate receipt money, and hoping for the best beyond the first or second round of the playoffs. This isn't a team shooting for a championship, though their payroll may say otherwise.

This is, of course, entirely within Washington's rights. They're allowed to do whatever the heck they want with Abe Pollin's money, and with injuries and age and the pell-mell Eastern Conference, who knows what can happen once the postseason starts.

Still, if you're a fan of this team, you would seem to want a bit more than "who knows what could happen in a seven game series?" as the mantra handed down from on high, heading in 2008-09.

20 Second Timeout:

...even at this supposedly "discounted" rate Arenas is still vastly overpaid and it is questionable how much the Wizards will be able to do with that $16 million, an amount that could do a lot of good in the real world but does not necessarily give the team that much ability to significantly upgrade the roster. I commend Arenas for making that gesture but I still maintain that with him as the featured--and highest paid--player the Wizards will not get past the second round of the playoffs.

Mister Irrelevant

Good for Gil, good for the Wiz and good for us. They/we got our man, and for market value too (Golden State had offered five years and $100 million, which comes out to $1.5 million more per season).

DC Optimist

And before you complain-blog about "keeping intact a mediocre team," and blaspheme this brilliant managerial move towards stability...keep in mind that this team has yet to truly harness their combined worth...while the big three were intact, the Wiz were in first place, and while the Wiz were in pieces, they beat the vaunted best team in the league. (Jamison in particular was beasting on the "intense" Garnett) Maintaining the structure of a first-place team is something that highly-approved team-constructors do.

Put any other reactions you find in the comments section.

It's been nearly three days since Gilbert Arenas re-signed, and I realize we haven't had much discussion about it, save from the initial FanShot.  That's mostly my fault; I've had trouble getting to the computer during the Holiday weekend. 

So, here goes.

It's clear that every side got what they wanted with this contract.  Arenas may not have received a maximum deal, but he still made out far better than many feel he should have.  He did settle for 16 million less than the max, but keep in mind that he negotiated this contract without an agent, who would have taken about a 10-percent commission on Gilbert's new salary.  Ten percent of 127 million is 12.7 million, so Gilbert would have pocketed only 114.3 million dollars on a max contract.  This way, he gets to keep the entire 111 million. 

Better yet, because he took less money, Arenas' image suddenly improved dramatically.  He can say he was a man of his word; that he's a "team player" because he allowed the front office a little more room under the luxury tax.  He can say he's doing something that nearly every other star won't do, all while still pocketing enough money to keep him set for life even if he gets hurt again. 

Ernie Grunfeld and Abe Pollin got what they wanted too, though.  Ernie got a little more room under the luxury tax to take the sting off some of the mistakes he's made to get to this point.  Depending on how the official numbers shake out, he might have enough money to bring Roger Mason back or, better yet, find the backup small forward we desperately need (I'm hoping for the latter).  Abe wins because he has a team that's ready to contend right now, even if they haven't been able to really contend in the past.  He won't have to suffer through a rebuilding project as his health diminishes.

The only thing left to determine is whether the Wizards get what they want, i.e. a deep playoff run with this group.  The answer to that question is something nobody can definitively say right now.  There's just not enough evidence of the Arenas/Butler/Jamison trio being healthy to determine its ceiling. All we really have is the end of 2006, when Butler finally broke into the starting lineup, and the first three months of 2007, before Jamison's injury, Butler's nagging problems, and Arenas and Butler's season-ending woes. 

What do we have there?  In 2006, the Wizards started slowly, but came on strong at the end of the season once Butler started to emerge.  They lost to the Cavaliers in the first round, but that series could have gone either way.  In 2007, the Wizards were near the top of the Eastern Conference before Antawn's injury, though there were plenty of caveats.  The conference was really down (nobody won more than 53 games in 2007), the Wizards were playing terrible defense, Arenas was hitting shots at a ridiculous rate and the Wizards' point differential was close to even.  Then again, that team also had to deal with feuding centers and a bench that really only had two capable reserves (AD and Etan/Haywood).

And...that's it.  Many detractors will point to this year's series against Cleveland as further evidence of the Big 3's collective shortcomings.  All three of them played, and the Wizards could only win when Arenas sat out.  But Arenas was severely hurt during this series, and since the Wizards had completely changed their style without him, they weren't able to adjust to his presence in such a short amount of time.  Those may sound like excuses, but I don't see why we should place too much emphasis on that one playoff series.  Even if we did, we have to consider the fact that, without Arenas in a must-win Game 6 on their home court, the Wizards completely laid an egg.

The point here is that nobody can really say this team's ceiling has been met.  Sure, they haven't won a single series together, but there was only one in which they were fully healthy.  Framing it in a "status quo" sort of way is silly.  We haven't seen a healthy Gilbert Arenas with this group of Wizards.  The last time it happened was in December of 2006, and that group took off, even though the team's depth stunk.

So let's stick to what we do know.  We know that, no matter how many times pundits and bloggers will claim that Arenas isn't worth this amount of money, the market said he was.  Golden State was prepared to offer Arenas a maximum contract despite all the shortcomings anyone wants to trot out.  Arenas could have received as much money as he possibly could have made there, albeit for one less year.  If the Wizards offered less than the maximum, Arenas could have just signed Golden State's more lucrative package, and the Wizards would have had nothing to show for it.  A sign-and-trade possibility probably wouldn't have worked either, not with the Warriors' ability to get Arenas without giving anything up.  Gilbert's knee problems may not have killed his free agent market value, but they surely would have killed his sign-and-trade value, with teams far less willing to give up players for a twice-injured Arenas than giving up cap room.

We also know that if the Wizards let Arenas go, they would not have been able to replace him with a top-notch free agent this year.  After re-signing Jamison, the Wizards' team salary was 54 million.  With the salary cap set at 58 million, they could only have used the mid-level and low-level exceptions to improve the roster.  The only thing that would have been gained is extra room under the luxury tax.  I don't know about you, but I'd rather have Arenas than extra space under the tax.

The only other option, besides the remote possibility of a sign-and-trade, would have been to let both Arenas and Jamison go.  The Wizards would have had around 14 million dollars under the salary cap.  Presumably, their nucleus would have been Butler, a marquee free agent (e.g. Corey Maggette), Brendan Haywood, a bunch of veteran role players, and a bunch of young guys who aren't there yet.  Worse yet, that would have likely been their roster for the next two years, since the Wizards have no contracts that expire after this season.  None of us know how long it would have taken for Ernie to rebuild the roster, but we know that he wouldn't be doing it around a dynamic young stud.  He'd be doing it around Butler, an outstanding player in his own right, but one who's 28, not 23 or 24.  By the time that group is ready to contend again, Butler might be past his prime. 

So with all those alternatives out there, I'm confident when I say that re-signing Arenas and Jamison at all costs is the best move out there.  It's not a perfect move, not by any stretch.  Arenas needs to be healthy, first and foremost.  If he is, he needs to be a better teammate than he was this past season.  He needs to become more committed defensively as well.  Jamison needs to continue to beg off Father Time and show that his renewed commitment to playing inside wasn't just the result of a contract-year push.  Additionally, because of our lack of cap flexibility, either Ernie's going to have to get even more creative, or Abe is going to have to shove off his notoriously frugal ways and allow Ernie to go over the luxury tax to bring Abe the title he so desperately wants.

It's a situation full of risks, and the price it costs makes those risks even greater.  But considering the alternatives, I don't see any other way that makes more sense.