Most of the time when you read stuff about the Wizards, there are certain words that you know are going to be assosciated with specific players on the team.  It's almost impossible to find a sentence with Antawn Jamison's name in it that doesn't also include the word veteran.  With Gilbert Arenas, you know you're going to see the word explosive somewhere in his description.  Caron always gets the tough label.  And of course, with Andray Blatche, you know you're going to hear the word potential used.

(AP - Manuel Balce Ceneta)

We've all seen flashes of Blatche is capable of.  You don't see a lot of guys at 6-11 that can shoot and handle the ball like Blatche does.  But his unique skill set isn't his only asset.  He had nine double-doubles last season and only 4 players averaged more blocks per 36 than he did last year.  Given that he just turned 22 last week, it looks like many more productive seasons are on the way as he starts realizing the potential everyone talks about.

While there's no debate among Wizard fans about whether or not Andray has potential or not, there has been a lot discussion regarding whether or not he'll ever realize it.  We can talk all day long about whether or not he has what it takes to make the most of his considerable gifts, but we don't get into a lot of discussion about how good he could be if he put it all together.  So for this week's edition of Pollin', we're strictly focusing on what we think Andray's ceiling is, not whether or not he can actually reach it.  Here are ceiling levels:

• MVP Candidate: To reach this level you're looking for someone that's the unquestioned top player on a strong team over a good stretch of time with at least 7 All-Star appearances and at least one or two serious bids for MVP.  Think Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber, Dirk Nowitzki.
  
• Perennial All-Star: For this level we're talking about someone with 3 or more All-Star appearances, that's the top player on a decent team or a very good second option on a very good team.  Think Jermaine O'Neal, Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Marion.
• Borderline All-Star: Here we're looking at someone that makes it to the All-Star game once or twice at most.  Unless they're mired on a team in complete rebuild mode, they're operating as a second or third banana.  Think Shareef Abdur-Raheem, Theo Ratliff, Jamal Mashburn, 
• Good, but not quite an All-Star: Barring a luck selection in a down year, these guys won't ever make an All-Star team, but they're certainly above average players at their position.  Think Lamar Odom, Marcus Camby, Vlade Divac.
• Solid, but not spectacular: These are guys that are going to be either average starters or above-average backups.  Unless they find themselves on a perennial contender, they'll end up fading into obscurity, even if they have a longer than normal career.
  

Personally, I'd slot him in the Borderline All-Star range, but on the right day I could be talked into slotting him as a Perennial All-Star type talent especially if he gets traded.  But what do you think?  Is Andray the next big thing, or are we just drooling too much over a tall guy with strong putback skills?

Previously:

• Etan Thomas
• Oleksiy Pecherov
• Dominic McGuire
• Nick Young
• Andray Blatche
• Roger Mason
• Darius Songaila
• Antonio Daniels
• DeShawn Stevenson
• Brendan Haywood
• Gilbert Arenas
• Antawn Jamison

Stats: Per-game: 39.9 minutes, 20.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.2 steals in 58 games.

Per-36: 18.4 points, 6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2 steals.

Percentages: 46.6 FG%, 35.7 3PT%, 90.1 FT%, 50.1 eFG%, 55.8 TS%

Advanced (explanations): 20.7 PER, 21.9 AST%, 9.8 REB%, 12.4 TO%, 24 UsgR, 113 ORtg, 107 DRtg, 7 WSAA (win score above average).

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Pradamaster: If 2006/07 was a breakout year for Caron Butler, then the beginning of the 2007/08 season was a stratospheric rise.  There were several reasons why the Wizards were able to survive Gilbert Arenas' injury in the first half of the season, but none were greater than Butler's emergence.  He was shooting at a ridiculous clip, having extended his range out to the three-point line, and was still doing all the other things that have contributed to his Tuff Juice moniker. 

Then, he injured his hip and missed several games.  When he came back, he wasn't anywhere near the same player he was in the first three months of the season, though to his credit he was still an extremely valuable player that showed tremendous growth from the end of his 2006/07 season.  His postseason performance was very uneven, with superb performances in Games 3 and 5 (both Wizards wins) and poor performances in the other four contests.  For the second straight year, Butler started strong and faded down the stretch. 

Still, we shouldn't discount the ways in which Caron Butler improved this season.  On the court, his offensive game became much more well-rounded, particularly in the half court.  Off the court, Butler began to emerge as a vocal leader, which is key because he's the one guy on the team who can really back up strong words with his actions.  Both will serve the team well as Arenas gets reintegrated with the team.

The narrative we've been using to describe Butler's offensive improvement mostly centers around his improved shooting, but that doesn't even begin to tell the whole story.  In fact, while there's no doubt Butler significantly improved his shooting range, the only time that it made a direct difference was during early parts of the season.  Through the first month of the season, Butler was shooting 54 percent from three-point range while sporting a 63% true shooting percentage.  He never shot better than 35 percent from three-point range in subsequent months.  Clearly, the threat of Butler shooting threes helped his offensive game, but his percentages were fairly pedestrian in every other month.

In reality, it was the improvement of Butler's passing skills that made a major difference.  His assist percentage rose to 21.9 percent this year, easily surpassing his 15.9 percent mark of 2006/07.  He also cut his turnover rate down from 13.9 percent in 06/07 to 12.4 percent last year.  His improvement was reflected in more than assists and turnovers, though.  For the first time in his career, Butler was running high pick and rolls, the default play designed for your best scorer to create an opportunity for himself or somebody else.  He also showed a ton of patience when double-teams arrived, kicking the ball to an open shooter instead of forcing something.  These skills are key if the Wizards are to accomplish their goal (or what should be their goal) of Arenas using fewer possessions.  Butler was mostly a finisher in the past, but his development as an initiator should mean fewer possessions that end with Arenas shooting a contested 18-footer. 

As good as Butler was this season, though, he really showed that he simply isn't quite good enough to be the number one option on a great team.  Oh sure, he can be for a game, like Game 5 against Cleveland or even a month, like he was in November, but there are just too many flaws that prevent him from doing it consistently.  For one, he just doesn't get to the free throw line enough.  He attempted just 4.1 free throws/36 minutes this year, and his free throws made per shot attempt placed him behind or on the same level renown slashers like Raymond Felton, Stephen Jackson, Marvin Williams and Ben Gordon.  This doesn't really jive with the Tuff Juice persona, but Butler is essentially a jump-shooter offensively.  That inability to get into the lane makes it much easier for teams to completely take him out of the game, as Cleveland did in Game 6. 

For another, his durability is concerning.  For the second straight season, Butler set a career high in minutes per game, and for the second straight season, a nagging injury kept him out of several games and limited him once he returned.  Durability can be a funny thing -- Marcus Camby, once the poster boy for fragility, has only missed 15 games in the last two years -- but it's concerning to see Butler break down again with an increased workload.  If there's one guy who needs to see his minutes cut as a precautionary measure, it's Butler, because he's played in at least 68 games every year before the last two, when his minutes jumped to over 39 a game.  You can't really have that from your number one scoring option over the long haul.

Essentially, he's in a perfect position to be a second option alongside Arenas, and I wouldn't have it any other way.  His persona and his game are complete opposites of Arenas', which is how it should be.  He should be a jump-shooter if Arenas is the one driving to the basket.  He should be the guy to lead by example if Arenas is going to continue to be the loony one, though I wish Butler would use words more often to back up his actions.  He should be a secondary offensive initiator that can allow Arenas to save his energy for defense. 

I don't want Butler to be Arenas, and I don't really want Arenas to be Butler.  In a pinch, we saw last year that Butler has the capability to at least come close to doing the things Arenas does well, but we also saw that Butler can't duplicate Arenas over the long run.  If both players just go back to being themselves, I can't think of too many duos that I'd rather have as franchise cornerstones.

JakeTheSnake: When it comes to talking about Caron Butler this season, the first thing that comes to mind is a stat that was used a lot by reporters, but I think still bears mentioning.  Only four players averaged 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists last season: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter and Caron Butler.  Say what you want about VC, but that's some pretty elite company that Caron finds himself in, and considering that he made that group with a lower usage rate than the other three, it makes the accomplishment that much more impressive.  Clearly, Tuff Juice has arrived as a star in this league.

It's funny, because last year I thought Caron had reached his peak level as a borderline All-Star/excellent second banana type player, but he took it to another level this year, thanks in part to his increased outside shooting.  In their season preview, ESPN said that Caron was one of the most effective forwards in the league from 18 feet in.  Now you can safely say that Caron is one of the most effective forwards in the league from just about anywhere.  The first month of the season, Caron shot a ridiculous 54.3% from beyond the arc while everyone was still using last year's scouting report on him.  As the year progressed and teams took notice of his increased range, his percentages went down, but even still they were better than his shooting percentages in previous years.

The one downside to Caron's increased range is that it means he's not taking it to the rack as much.  His 4.1 FTA's per 36 were the second lowest of his career.  Part of that is the result of not having Gilbert around to create more driving lanes, but we also have to remember that Caron has to preserve his body as well.  To expect him to increase his trips to the charity stripe and expect him to stay injury free is a fleeting hope at best.  Sure, it might not seem like a very Tough Juice thing to do, but if we don't want him to turn into a walking injury by age 33, we have to get used to him relying on his mid-range game and his outside shot a little more.

With that said, Caron's still a few years away from the Michael-Jordan-all-I-shoot-is-fadeaways stage, so there will still be plenty of Caronimo! moments to enjoy this upcoming season.  I would say that we should expect a lot of what we saw last season again, but if Caron showed me anything last season, it's that he doesn't have a ceiling.

Oh, and in case anyone was wondering:  Caron without headband > Caron with headband.

Truthaboutit: People will remember '07-08 as the year when Caron Butler first stepped forward and showed that he could put a team on his back and lead to victory.

Sure he was an All-Star in the previous season, but what does that mean? Don't get me wrong, I am far from discrediting the accolade. But in that instance, the door was simply open to any naysayers to opine that Butler's merits were the result of playing alongside budding superstar, Gilbert Arenas. By the way, I am not one of these naysayers, Caron earned every bit of his '06-07 All-Star selection himself.

At the same time, things come easier when opposing defenses place a brunt of their focus on a teammate. How would Caron respond with the Agent Zero comfort blanket pulled out from under him?

Fortunately, and unfortunately, Wizards fans were granted the opportunity to see just what kind of special player they had in Butler with Arenas only appearing in eight inconsistent games in the '07-08 season's early going.

Before the All-Star break, Butler averaged 21.4 points, 6.8 boards, 4.5 assists, 2.4 steals on 47.6% from the field and 91.3% from the free-throw line. His season totals were all career highs save for rebounds. Also add Butler to the list of those helped by shooting coach Dave Hopla as his 66 made threes on the season were a 61% increase over his previous career high and his 90.1 FT% was 6th in the NBA.

Butler's 20.95 PER was good enough for 22nd in the league, according to KnickerBlogger.Net, and 82games.com tells us that Butler was one of the top 15 clutch players in the league...."clutch" meaning average points scored per 48 minutes of clutch time which is under 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter or overtime of a game where neither team holds a lead greater than five points. He was also 8th in the league in Inside FG%......if Tuff Juice got into the paint, you could pretty much count the bucket.

One would almost think that Caron Butler is perfect....well, he's not. If there's one beef I had with Butler is that he settled for mid-range shots too much. Dude has a decent sized body, and often seemed to be matched up against smaller players. I'd like to see Butler increase his mid-range post game workload, and draw more fouls leading to trips to the FT line. As much as he is counted on to score, Butler needs to boost that 9% foul draw percentage.

Overall, I'm ecstatic that Caron Butler came into his own. I sleep better at night knowing that he, along with Jamison, are the true heart and soul of the team, and that Butler is locked up for a reasonable three more years at $30 million. But those who thought that Ernie Grunfeld should have gotten rid of Gilbert Arenas and built around Caron Butler were severely kidding themselves.

In the long run, teams with championship hopes need scorers with killer instinct such as Arenas. Not saying that Gilbert is a sure thing, but he was the best option under the given circumstances. I'm also not saying that Caron doesn't have killer instinct, but he can't do it alone. A team with Caron as the best scorer will not go far when it counts.

Just take a look at Butler's scoring stats versus Poor (24.3), Average (18.0), and Good (17.4) teams. It's nice that he's 9th in the league in scoring against Poor teams, but we need the effort to be sustained versus the best of the best. [For the record, Kobe scored 27.5 against Poor, 27.4 against Average, and 30.0 against Good; Paul Pierce scored 17.8 against Poor, 19.9 against Average, and 22.0 against Good.]

Yes, Caron was a big reason as to why the Wizards made the playoffs without Arenas. However, it's my opinion that Caron is more of a James Worthy type player who, while more than integral to a championship run, is not going to lead his team to a ring. That's not to say that Caron can't be "the" team leader.....I'd rather him play that role more than anyone else. Plus, everyone could use a shot of Tuff Juice before games.

Addendum:

I'd be remiss if I did not mention Caron Butler's injury....and I can't believe I neglected to do so when it was on my mind. He missed the five games before the All-Star break, and came back about a month later when most thought that his left hip labral tear would keep him out for the season.

Butler's post injury numbers certainly dropped off across the board.....well, his assists went up. We could all tell that the injury affected him to some degree, how much, we'll never know. Why? Because Caron Butler never said a word about it. He's the type of person, as we've come to find out, who would never even consider playing the injury card. And it's because of this, more than anything else he's done on the court, that I've gained the utmost respect for Butler.

Like I've said, a team can't win a championship without a scorer akin to Gilbert Arenas, but at the same time, a team certainly won't get a banner without someone like Caron Butler.

While Ernie Grunfeld's Caron for Kwame trade is undoubtedly the best move of his tenure as Wizards' GM so far, the Jamison for Stackhouse and Harris trade was a great move in its own right.  Not only did we get rid of Stack, who never meshed with Arenas and couldn't seem to deal with the fact that he wasn't the man anymore, but we were able to get a better player that was a tremendous fit alongside Agent Zero.

I don't think anyone would say that they wish they could go back in time and undo the trade.  But let's say that for whatever reason the trade falls through and you'lre left with the 5th pick in the draft and Jerry Stackhouse.  What would you have done with the pick?  Here are your options:

Draft Josh Childress: The knock on Childress is that he's someone that does a lot of things well, but he doesn't do anything great.  While that may be true, you have to figure that his good, but not great defense would still be better than most of the rest of team's D and if nothing else, would've been a better do-it-all option than Jared Jeffries.  Just make sure that you don't ever let him get a passport.

Draft Luol Deng: The most complete player in the 6-10 range in the draft, Deng would give the team someone that could give you some solid scoring and rebounding at SF and make Stackhouse even more expendable.  However, if you take Deng than you're probably not going to land Caron Butler a year later, which means that you just might have to trade Kwame for (gasp!) market value.

Draft Andre Iguodala: Iggy has the higher scoring average than Deng or Childress but he's not quite as good as a passer or rebounder and he has a slightly lower FG%.  On the bright side, you'd have another Wildcat to pair with Arenas and he would add gobs of athleticism to the team.

Stick with Harris: Arenas + Harris = Fastest backcourt ever

Trade up: The top two picks are probably off-limits, but with the right offer, you just might get that #3 or #4 pick.  The question you must ask is if Ben Gordon or Shaun Livingston are worth making a move.

Trade down: If you find the Childress/Deng/Iguodala trifecta underwhelming, you could always trade down to get someone like Andris Biedrins, Josh Smith, or Al Jefferson.  Then again, you could end up trading down for the immortal Robert Swift or Sebastian Telfair.  Hey, I never said this would be easy.

Draft Rafael Araujo: He could still pan out right?  Right?

In the all the hoopla surrounding the announcement of this year's NBA schedule, very little media attention was given to the announcement of the first player to be selected to the 2009 NBA All-Star team.  Even if there are some sure-fire locks to make the team (Kobe, LeBron, Yao, Dwight Howard, etc.) this year, it seems a little odd that someone would officially be given a spot two months before the season begins. 

Normally, I'd be a little wary of any source that claims to know such information, but in this case I'm willing to make an exception.  3-time All-Star Caron Butler has earned that kind of respect:

(Note: Caron mutters a few profanities before making his announcement, so be careful where you listen.  However, the last 10 seconds where the declaration goes down is completely clean.)

Let's just hope this year Caron actually plays in the All-Star Game, as opposed to being sidelined with an injury.  That would be a nice touch.

I'll be honest, I really don't how to preface this post, so let's jump past the thin candy shell and right into the ooey-gooey chocolate center of the post shall we?

WHAT THE WIZARDS WOULD BE IF THEY WERE CANDY

Gilbert Arenas = Pixy Stix: The complaints about both are the same: Very sweet, good for a quick thrill, not a whole lot of filling substance.  Yet you rarely see fans of either complain about feeling empty.

Andray Blatche = Twizzlers: Both could benefit from being a little thicker.

Dee Brown = Skittles: In the interest of full disclosure, nothing about Dee Brown's game reminds me of Skittles, but whenever I watch him, he reminds me of a hyper kid running around after eating a whole bag Skittles.

Caron Butler = Snickers: With a Snickers bar, you're getting a nice, diverse package of chocolate, nougat, peanuts, and caramel.  Caron also gives you a little bit of everything and puts it into a sweet package that everyone can enjoy.  (Not to mention, that every so often you see both wrapped in gold.  But let's not talk about the alternate jerseys right now.)

Antonio Daniels = Hershey's: Sure, there's stuff out there that might taste a little better, or have some fancier packaging, but these two give you what you're looking for every single time.

Brendan Haywood = Peanut Brittle: At first look, they both look kind of clumsy.  Brendan isn't exactly Pete Maravich and peanut brittle looks like a rejected batch of semi-processed peanut butter.  But when you get down to it, you realize that both are pretty doggone good.

Antawn Jamison = M&M's: A timeless classic.  And like Jamison's shot, you can find M&M's in just about every variety imaginable.

JaVale McGee = Bacon Bar: At first, they both sound kind of gross (Chocolate flavored bacon?  An athletic 7-footer that has 3 pt. range but struggles with rebounding?) but they're both intriguing enough to make you want to try it out at least once.

Dominic McGuire = Shock Tarts: Need I say more?

Oleksiy Pecherov = Laffy Taffy: They give you some flavor, and they're good for a chuckle.  What more could you ask for?

Darius Songaila = Twix: What? He likes things dipped in chocolate.

DeShawn Stevenson = Everlasting Gobstopper: You can try to wear them down, but you know at the end of the day that they're too durable to let something like saliva or a knee injury keep them from playing.

Etan Thomas = Gourmet Chocolate: It's a decent product, just a little more pricey than it should be.

Nick Young = Airheads: Being the youthful player that he is, Nick Young makes some decisions on the court that make you wonder what's going on in his mind.  But then you remember that one day the maturity will come and then we can stop wondering about his head and we can devote all of our focus to his air.

If you're not planning on watching the game, and you want the game summed up in 3 minutes, hit up the video:

(via Odenized)

You gotta love when the point guard is tipping in the center's missed 3 pointer at the buzzer.  The Summer League: Where reversing conventional basketball wisdom happens.  My thoughts from this especially strange game are pretty disorganized, so enjoy some bullet point thoughts.

• If you've never understood why we have such a man-crush on Dominic McGuire, just watch the tape from tonight.  Taser was all over the place, crashing the boards, getting putbacks, and doing all the other things that make us love him so.  His statline tonight: 18 points (9-13 from the field), 11 rebounds (6 offensive), 3 assists, 2 blocks.
  
• Nick talked with Ivan before the game about forcing things too much in the first three games.  Tonight, I think he went a little too far to the other end and seemed too tentative for most of the game, but he came through nicely in the closing minutes.
• JaVale didn't do a whole lot offensively tonight, but I like that he pulled in 6 boards in 15 minutes of work.  Granted, the Rockets were a little short up front with Joey Dorsey sitting this one out, but I'll take it.
• While I'm thinking of it, I just want to give a shout out to Joey for all his help in this one.  Couldn't have done it without you Goliath!
• I don't know if Dominic has been working with Caron or not this summer, but I've noticed that he's been using that mid-range pull up jumper that Caron relies on a lot this week.  If he can get that to be half as automatic as Caron has, he'll be getting a lot more playing time this season.
• I know that some of you are starting to panic about the Dee Brown signing.  He hasn't done a whole lot so far and tonight he was replaced by Dontaye Draper in the starting lineup.  I wouldn't get too upset just yet.  Let's not forget that he's still learning the offense and he's primarily just trying to leave the playmaking to the guys who know the system.  He'll have the rest of the summer to catch up.  I'll take his six rebound performance (including the tip!) in the meantime.
• There hasn't been a lot to quibble with in regards to Andray's play in Vegas, he's been playing at the level you would expect from a fourth year player.  I'm slightly disappointed that he's not averaging more than 7.3 boards per game, but that's my only quibble.  He's still isn't there quite yet, but he's still coming along and it's clear that he hasn't plateaued.  I'll take it.
  

It's been nearly three days since Gilbert Arenas re-signed, and I realize we haven't had much discussion about it, save from the initial FanShot.  That's mostly my fault; I've had trouble getting to the computer during the Holiday weekend. 

So, here goes.

It's clear that every side got what they wanted with this contract.  Arenas may not have received a maximum deal, but he still made out far better than many feel he should have.  He did settle for 16 million less than the max, but keep in mind that he negotiated this contract without an agent, who would have taken about a 10-percent commission on Gilbert's new salary.  Ten percent of 127 million is 12.7 million, so Gilbert would have pocketed only 114.3 million dollars on a max contract.  This way, he gets to keep the entire 111 million. 

Better yet, because he took less money, Arenas' image suddenly improved dramatically.  He can say he was a man of his word; that he's a "team player" because he allowed the front office a little more room under the luxury tax.  He can say he's doing something that nearly every other star won't do, all while still pocketing enough money to keep him set for life even if he gets hurt again. 

Ernie Grunfeld and Abe Pollin got what they wanted too, though.  Ernie got a little more room under the luxury tax to take the sting off some of the mistakes he's made to get to this point.  Depending on how the official numbers shake out, he might have enough money to bring Roger Mason back or, better yet, find the backup small forward we desperately need (I'm hoping for the latter).  Abe wins because he has a team that's ready to contend right now, even if they haven't been able to really contend in the past.  He won't have to suffer through a rebuilding project as his health diminishes.

The only thing left to determine is whether the Wizards get what they want, i.e. a deep playoff run with this group.  The answer to that question is something nobody can definitively say right now.  There's just not enough evidence of the Arenas/Butler/Jamison trio being healthy to determine its ceiling. All we really have is the end of 2006, when Butler finally broke into the starting lineup, and the first three months of 2007, before Jamison's injury, Butler's nagging problems, and Arenas and Butler's season-ending woes. 

What do we have there?  In 2006, the Wizards started slowly, but came on strong at the end of the season once Butler started to emerge.  They lost to the Cavaliers in the first round, but that series could have gone either way.  In 2007, the Wizards were near the top of the Eastern Conference before Antawn's injury, though there were plenty of caveats.  The conference was really down (nobody won more than 53 games in 2007), the Wizards were playing terrible defense, Arenas was hitting shots at a ridiculous rate and the Wizards' point differential was close to even.  Then again, that team also had to deal with feuding centers and a bench that really only had two capable reserves (AD and Etan/Haywood).

And...that's it.  Many detractors will point to this year's series against Cleveland as further evidence of the Big 3's collective shortcomings.  All three of them played, and the Wizards could only win when Arenas sat out.  But Arenas was severely hurt during this series, and since the Wizards had completely changed their style without him, they weren't able to adjust to his presence in such a short amount of time.  Those may sound like excuses, but I don't see why we should place too much emphasis on that one playoff series.  Even if we did, we have to consider the fact that, without Arenas in a must-win Game 6 on their home court, the Wizards completely laid an egg.

The point here is that nobody can really say this team's ceiling has been met.  Sure, they haven't won a single series together, but there was only one in which they were fully healthy.  Framing it in a "status quo" sort of way is silly.  We haven't seen a healthy Gilbert Arenas with this group of Wizards.  The last time it happened was in December of 2006, and that group took off, even though the team's depth stunk.

So let's stick to what we do know.  We know that, no matter how many times pundits and bloggers will claim that Arenas isn't worth this amount of money, the market said he was.  Golden State was prepared to offer Arenas a maximum contract despite all the shortcomings anyone wants to trot out.  Arenas could have received as much money as he possibly could have made there, albeit for one less year.  If the Wizards offered less than the maximum, Arenas could have just signed Golden State's more lucrative package, and the Wizards would have had nothing to show for it.  A sign-and-trade possibility probably wouldn't have worked either, not with the Warriors' ability to get Arenas without giving anything up.  Gilbert's knee problems may not have killed his free agent market value, but they surely would have killed his sign-and-trade value, with teams far less willing to give up players for a twice-injured Arenas than giving up cap room.

We also know that if the Wizards let Arenas go, they would not have been able to replace him with a top-notch free agent this year.  After re-signing Jamison, the Wizards' team salary was 54 million.  With the salary cap set at 58 million, they could only have used the mid-level and low-level exceptions to improve the roster.  The only thing that would have been gained is extra room under the luxury tax.  I don't know about you, but I'd rather have Arenas than extra space under the tax.

The only other option, besides the remote possibility of a sign-and-trade, would have been to let both Arenas and Jamison go.  The Wizards would have had around 14 million dollars under the salary cap.  Presumably, their nucleus would have been Butler, a marquee free agent (e.g. Corey Maggette), Brendan Haywood, a bunch of veteran role players, and a bunch of young guys who aren't there yet.  Worse yet, that would have likely been their roster for the next two years, since the Wizards have no contracts that expire after this season.  None of us know how long it would have taken for Ernie to rebuild the roster, but we know that he wouldn't be doing it around a dynamic young stud.  He'd be doing it around Butler, an outstanding player in his own right, but one who's 28, not 23 or 24.  By the time that group is ready to contend again, Butler might be past his prime. 

So with all those alternatives out there, I'm confident when I say that re-signing Arenas and Jamison at all costs is the best move out there.  It's not a perfect move, not by any stretch.  Arenas needs to be healthy, first and foremost.  If he is, he needs to be a better teammate than he was this past season.  He needs to become more committed defensively as well.  Jamison needs to continue to beg off Father Time and show that his renewed commitment to playing inside wasn't just the result of a contract-year push.  Additionally, because of our lack of cap flexibility, either Ernie's going to have to get even more creative, or Abe is going to have to shove off his notoriously frugal ways and allow Ernie to go over the luxury tax to bring Abe the title he so desperately wants.

It's a situation full of risks, and the price it costs makes those risks even greater.  But considering the alternatives, I don't see any other way that makes more sense.

[Note: Yes, I posted this here and at Gilbertology.  When I was writing this up, I wasn't sure which site it would be better suited for, so I'm posting it at both.]

If you caught any Celtics game last season, they you're probably familiar with their rallying cry of "Ubuntu" which translates to "I am because we are."  Doc Rivers was able to get everyone on the team from the All-Stars to the scrubs to buy into the Ubuntu philosophy as they all sacrificed their individual games for the good of the team.   Sure, the whole thing was pretty corny, but you can't argue with the results.

Chanting "Ubuntu!" after every huddle doesn't guarantee success, but practicing the principles behind it guide every successful team.  Doc knew that in order to get the C's to buy into that mentality, he had to work from the top down.  When he was able to get The Big 3 sold on Ubuntu, the rest of the team followed suit.  Teams take on the character of their best player.  It's not a surprise that the Spurs are a defensive minded team that executes flawlessly on offense but lacks flair, just like Tim Duncan.  Likewise, it shouldn't come as a surprise when a team with a dysfunctional leader plays dysfunctionally.

Over the last few years, Antawn and Caron have been the captains and the vocal leaders of the team, but more than anyone else this team follows Gilbert Arenas.  He might not fit the classic profile of team leader, but like I said before, the team takes the character of the best player.   Does a quirky team with explosive offensive ability and defensive woes remind you more of Arenas or Butler and Jamison?

That's why Gilbert's decision to take less money than he was offered could prove to be the move that takes the Wizards from a perennial one-and-done to legitimate championship contender.  By taking less than the max, he's demonstrating to the team that he's willing to make sacrifices to make the team better and that he's expecting the same commitment from everyone else.

Only time will tell what each player is willing to give up in order to get to the ultimate goal of an NBA championship, but if they follow the tone that Gilbert's set here in the same way that they have in the past, we should be ready to see a Wizards team that's ready to embrace the concept of Ubuntu.

So you might have heard about the "secret agreement" rumor, alleging that Gilbert already has a deal in place with Ernie Grunfeld on a new contract.  At first, this might just seem like one of those rumors you hear from time to time that don't really hold any weight.  But before we dismiss it all as hogwash, let's go back to the end of the season when Caron had this to say about Gilbert and Antawn as they headed to free agency:

I look forward to both of them coming back. Obviously, I don't have that much input but publicly, I'm saying what I'm saying right now. I would love to have them back. I think that will be the case and I'm almost positive that will be the case.

I just have a hunch, a reliable source.

Caron seemed to reinforce the idea that he thought Gilbert and Antawn would be back in a recent interview:

And let's not forget a few weeks ago that Roger Mason said that he was "100% sure" that Gilbert would be back next season.  Now, there's a lot of rational ways that you can explain those quotes away.  Maybe Gilbert has given the team the impression, or bluntly said that he wants to stay.  Maybe in those exit interviews Ernie reassured all the players that he would do whatever it takes to keep him.  Or maybe, just maybe this "secret agreement" was already in place at the end of the season.

I'd put the chances of a secret agreement already being in place at the end of the season at about the same probability as a secret agreement being in place as we speak, which is to say that I highly doubt that a plan has already been made.  But I think there's enough evidence here to at least make you consider it a possibility

Hey all you fathers (and sons) out there, hope you have a great father's day today.  I'm pretty sure Caron Butler and many of the residents of Caron's hometown, will be enjoying the day.  Today he's hosting the Caron Butler 3D Explosion Clinic in Racine where kids will get to learn basketball skills from Tough Juice.

You might be wondering why Caron would host an event like this on Father's Day.  Rather than trying to explain it, I'll let Caron do the talking:

"It was intentionally planned for Father’s Day, which ended up working out perfectly with my schedule," Butler said.

Butler said he chose Father’s Day for the event because the day has always meant a lot to him.

"It’s something that always was sentimental in my life and close to my heart," he said. "I was raised without a father so I know the value of having a father. Fathers should be acknowledged and appreciated."

Hopefully all the fathers and sons at the camp and everywhere else keep that in mind today.  Also, let's hope that the Butler family got Caron some nice clothes for Father's Day, because the ensemble he wore to his bike giveaway yesterday could use some work: