Most of the time when you read stuff about the Wizards, there are certain words that you know are going to be assosciated with specific players on the team.  It's almost impossible to find a sentence with Antawn Jamison's name in it that doesn't also include the word veteran.  With Gilbert Arenas, you know you're going to see the word explosive somewhere in his description.  Caron always gets the tough label.  And of course, with Andray Blatche, you know you're going to hear the word potential used.

(AP - Manuel Balce Ceneta)

We've all seen flashes of Blatche is capable of.  You don't see a lot of guys at 6-11 that can shoot and handle the ball like Blatche does.  But his unique skill set isn't his only asset.  He had nine double-doubles last season and only 4 players averaged more blocks per 36 than he did last year.  Given that he just turned 22 last week, it looks like many more productive seasons are on the way as he starts realizing the potential everyone talks about.

While there's no debate among Wizard fans about whether or not Andray has potential or not, there has been a lot discussion regarding whether or not he'll ever realize it.  We can talk all day long about whether or not he has what it takes to make the most of his considerable gifts, but we don't get into a lot of discussion about how good he could be if he put it all together.  So for this week's edition of Pollin', we're strictly focusing on what we think Andray's ceiling is, not whether or not he can actually reach it.  Here are ceiling levels:

• MVP Candidate: To reach this level you're looking for someone that's the unquestioned top player on a strong team over a good stretch of time with at least 7 All-Star appearances and at least one or two serious bids for MVP.  Think Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber, Dirk Nowitzki.
  
• Perennial All-Star: For this level we're talking about someone with 3 or more All-Star appearances, that's the top player on a decent team or a very good second option on a very good team.  Think Jermaine O'Neal, Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Marion.
• Borderline All-Star: Here we're looking at someone that makes it to the All-Star game once or twice at most.  Unless they're mired on a team in complete rebuild mode, they're operating as a second or third banana.  Think Shareef Abdur-Raheem, Theo Ratliff, Jamal Mashburn, 
• Good, but not quite an All-Star: Barring a luck selection in a down year, these guys won't ever make an All-Star team, but they're certainly above average players at their position.  Think Lamar Odom, Marcus Camby, Vlade Divac.
• Solid, but not spectacular: These are guys that are going to be either average starters or above-average backups.  Unless they find themselves on a perennial contender, they'll end up fading into obscurity, even if they have a longer than normal career.
  

Personally, I'd slot him in the Borderline All-Star range, but on the right day I could be talked into slotting him as a Perennial All-Star type talent especially if he gets traded.  But what do you think?  Is Andray the next big thing, or are we just drooling too much over a tall guy with strong putback skills?

Ah yes, our seven-man smorgasbord of veterans with faults and unproven youngsters.  Depending on who you ask, this unit may or may not need to be consolidated or upgraded, but for the time being, it's what we've got.

And what, exactly, do we have?  We have two solid starters, one that's an absolute ace offensively and normally a sieve defensively and one that's awkward offensively and an underrated presence defensively.  We have two veterans who are limited, but are trusted by the coach even when they are blocking players who deserve some of their minutes.  Then, we have three young guys, all with the potential of being a difference maker, but all projects that need playing time despite being in different stages of their development.  

You don't have to be Eddie Jordan to have trouble allocating 96 minutes a game to this group.  (Though he's particularly "good" at it).  

There are so many trade-offs to consider.  Play Etan Thomas for his rebounding...but do so at the expense of Brendan Haywood's defense and (maybe) attitude.  Play Darius Songaila for his offensive smarts...but do so at the expense of Andray Blatche's much-needed development.  Play Antawn Jamison 40 minutes a night for his essential all-around contributions...but do so at the expense of providing developmental minutes to Blatche, JaVale McGee and Oleksiy Pecherov, projects drafted to eventually replace him.

96 minutes, seven guys, all power forwards or centers. How would you specifically allocate the minutes? 

Some considerations:

• Last year, only Jamison played more than 20 percent of the team's minutes at a position other than power forward or center.  Otherwise, these guys were exclusively playing the 4 or the 5. 
• In 2006/07, when Haywood played more than 25 minutes in a game, the Wizards were 18-8.
• According to Basketballvalue.com, Darius Songaila had the second-highest adjusted plus/minus on the team last year, behind only Jamison.  
• The highest PER of any reserve on the team last year belonged to Andray Blatche at 15.5.  In 2006/07, that honor belonged to Etan Thomas.
• To review: Though Haywood has never posted a higher defensive rebound percentage than Thomas in a year both played, the team's defensive efficiency has always been better with Haywood on the floor instead of Thomas.  

Good luck!

Previously:

• Etan Thomas
• Oleksiy Pecherov
• Dominic McGuire
• Nick Young
• Andray Blatche
• Roger Mason
• Darius Songaila
• Antonio Daniels
• DeShawn Stevenson
• Brendan Haywood
• Antawn Jamison

Stats: Per-game: 38.7 minutes, 21.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 7.5 defensive rebounds.

Per-36: 19.9 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 7 defensive rebounds.

Percentages: 43.6 FG%, 33.9 3PT%, 76 FT%, 47.8 eFG%, 52.5 TS%

Advanced (explanations): 20.3 PER, 15.4 REB%, 23.2 DREB%, 6.6 TO%, 25.9 UsgR, 112 ORtg, 107 DRtg, 8.9 WSAA (win score above average).

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Pradamaster: Of all the loony things in John Hollinger's now-infamous 33-win prediction, the one that gets me the most a year later (as well as at the time) was the odd claim that Antawn Jamison was declining as a basketball player.  Because Hollinger is Hollinger, the comment led an exhaustive study on the subject by We Rite Goode (who the blogosphere misses dearly), but it really wasn't necessary.  By any measure, Jamison was aging just fine.  It's just that because he is such an unorthodox player and plays with two other all-stars, he never gets the recognition or positive attention that he deserves.  This has been happening since the very beginning of his Wizards career.  He was going to be solid no matter his age or his supposed decline.

Still, you have to be somewhat astonished at the type of season Jamison had this year.  Once and for all, he shed the soft tweenter label he's been stuck with throughout his career.  He posted easily the highest rebound percentage of his career, turning into one of the league's top rebounders despite his slight frame.  His defense, long a sore point of his game (and that's being nice) improved dramatically to the point where the Wizards were actually significantly worse defensively with him off the court.  In fact, he posted the fourth-highest adjusted plus/minus in the entire league, despite the fact that two of the team's best reserves play his position. 

It was almost as if everything we knew about Jamison's game was completely upended.  He was always seen as a potent offensive player, but while his defense and rebounding improved, his shooting percentages fell off.  He posted the lowest shooting percentage of his career and his lowest three-point percentage as a Wizard.  Clearly, his days of being a primary scoring option on a good team are over. Yet despite those struggles, he found other ways to make an impact and ended up being easily the most important Wizard in a season defined by surprises in the absence of Gilbert Arenas. 

This transformation is so incredible because it occurred at age 31 in a contract year.  Jamison knew this was his last chance at a big payday, and he knows that one gets his money by scoring, having secured an unnecessary max contract from Golden State earlier in his career.  It would have been very easy for him to have jacked up more ill-advised perimeter shots and played the same porous defense that had defined his career.  Instead, he did all the things that don't make money in this league, even though his body is not meant for them.  

It all goes back to the idiosyncratic nature of Jamison.  He has this reputation as a shoot-first gunner, yet he's made his most profound impact with the Wizards as a rebounder and third option that doesn't hold the ball much.  He's seemingly been labeled as being too small to man the power forward position, yet he had a higher rebound rate than Dirk Nowitzki, David West, Amare Stoudamire and Rasheed Wallace last year.  He's seen as being one-dimensional, yet in the past 18 months, he has played the role of efficient all-offense extraordinare (early 2007), go-to-guy on a bad team (late 2007, mid-2008), rugged rebounder, top three-point threat, default post-up man, top-notch help defender and team leader in the locker room.  If anything, Jamison may be among the most adaptive players in the league. 

I realize that the criticisms of Jamison's game will not end, even from those who know what they're talking about.  We'll continue to advocate benching him and give Andray Blatche more time.  There were plenty who wanted to use his huge expiring contract in a trade last year, even while he was so essential to the team, and there will be plenty looking to find ways to move him to the future.  And there will be plenty of opposition to his new four-year contract that will pay him a lot of money until he's 36 years old, especially if management doesn't make a big move to upgrade the roster.

Everybody's entitled to that, but I just caution everyone to not make the same mistake John Hollinger did last year.  There's simply no evidence that Jamison is declining, and there's no evidence yet to suggest that he is not going to be an incredibly important part of this team going forward just as he has been in the past.   He's the real glue guy of this team, the one who will do whatever is missing.  All good teams need somebody like that.

JakeTheSnake: I've had a bizarre (non-creepy, non-personal) love-hate relationship with Antawn Jamison during his career.  I liked him back in the day at UNC with Vince Carter (back when VC cared about things), I still found him enjoyable when he was in Golden State even though I didn't see him a lot, and I loved him in Dallas (even if he didn't love being in Dallas).  So naturally, I was estatic when I heard that he was coming to Washington 4 years ago.

While I never doubted that the Jamison for Stackhouse/Harris trade was a coup for us, over the years I'd gotten a little more aggrevated with him every year.  It's those things that you don't pay attention to when you root for the player but don't have a vested interest in the team's performance that started to stick out like his defense, or how he thought he got fouled every time he shot the ball.  Eventually it got to the point where II was suggesting that we use him in incredibly lop-sided trades with Charlotte.  It was bad.

Then, like a modern-day Ponce de Leon with a funky scoop shott and a penchant for swatting Italians, Jamison found his fountain of youth this season.  When the Wizards needed to turn to a steadying force, he was their Gibraltar.  If they needed someone to take down a collection of 19th century ships, he was the Perfect Storm.  When it came time for him to knock down some open shots against Cleveland he...

Well, I guess he didn't have a perfect season, but a very, very good one that should be commended.  As we've detailed before, a big part of Jamison's output this year was connected to Haywood.  With BTH taking up space in the middle, it allowed Jamison to rebound more effectively this season.  He's always had the hands and the quickness to rebound but he's never had the frame for it.  Having Haywood in there allows him to pull down more boards and save his body from the pounding that goes on down-low, a win-win situation for a guy in his 30's.

Even though some of his value is tied in with his Tarheel teammate, he's still a guy that I like having around, no matter who he's playing with.  His ability to score inside and outside make him a match-up nightmare, he's a leader in the locker room, and he can still surprise people with his athleticism every once in a while.  I highly doubt that he'll be able to have another year like he did this season, but he's been able to stay productive for quite a while.  I don't see a cliff-like fall in production in his future.

Truthaboutit: The 2007-08 season was unquestionably Antawn Jamison's best as a Wizard. He stayed healthy when others could not, appearing and starting in 79 games while playing more minutes (3,060) than anyone on the team, almost 500 more minutes than runner-up DeShawn Stevenson. All this burn for the second oldest Washington Wizard, who would've thunk?

At times, I've tried to refer to Jamison as "The Gentlemen," but for the Wiz, he's "Mr. Everything." AJ led the team in points scored and points per game (21.4), was second in steals (106), first in total rebounds and per game (10.2, also good for 10th in the NBA), and third in three-pointers made (120).

In fact, I'll go ahead and say that 07-08 was the best of Jamison's career. Sure he averaged more points per game twice when he was with Golden State, but he's never averaged a double-double before. And the only year in which his PER (20.3) was higher was when he was 6th Man of the Year with Dallas in 03-04 (21.2), and in that year, he averaged 9.7 less minutes per game.

And sure, AJ's eFG% was only the 5th best of his career, but he went above and beyond the call of duty in shouldering a majority of the scoring load while leading a injury depleted team to the playoffs for the 4th straight year. Jamison's shot selection was also questionable at times in '07-08, but you really can't argue with the second best TO% in the NBA (6.6).

In case you don't get the message that AJ is the model of consistency, 82games tells us that against "good" teams, AJ averaged 20.1 ppg and 9.1 rpg. Against "average" teams, he pulled down 20.4 ppg and 10.9 rpg, and against "poor" teams, Jamison got 23.5 ppg and 10.4 rpg.

Seemingly for the Wizards as a team, making a strong showing coming out of the half in the 3rd quarter was always crucial in terms of wins and losses. Well, that's when Jamison averaged his most points per game, 8th in the NBA scoring 6.6 points per 3rd. But perhaps the best sign of Jamison's importance was his net +14.2 points when he was on the court, second only to Steve Nash. Oh, and Jamison's +9.1 Roland Rating, an overall measurement of player production/performance, was 14th in the league.

Pointing out all these numbers would not mean much if we didn't already know how important Jamison was to the Wizards franchise with his intangibles, team leadership, and community presence. It's no coincidence that in his four years in DC, the Wiz have made the playoffs in each. Could Jamison's karma be some sort of reversal of the Curse O' Les Boulez? Who knows......if you even believe in curses. In the least, AJ's arrival purged disappointments Jerry Stackhouse and Christian Laettner, and brought joy to fans in need of something to cheer about. All Wizards fans should be glad that he's back, whatever the cost may be.

While Ernie Grunfeld's Caron for Kwame trade is undoubtedly the best move of his tenure as Wizards' GM so far, the Jamison for Stackhouse and Harris trade was a great move in its own right.  Not only did we get rid of Stack, who never meshed with Arenas and couldn't seem to deal with the fact that he wasn't the man anymore, but we were able to get a better player that was a tremendous fit alongside Agent Zero.

I don't think anyone would say that they wish they could go back in time and undo the trade.  But let's say that for whatever reason the trade falls through and you'lre left with the 5th pick in the draft and Jerry Stackhouse.  What would you have done with the pick?  Here are your options:

Draft Josh Childress: The knock on Childress is that he's someone that does a lot of things well, but he doesn't do anything great.  While that may be true, you have to figure that his good, but not great defense would still be better than most of the rest of team's D and if nothing else, would've been a better do-it-all option than Jared Jeffries.  Just make sure that you don't ever let him get a passport.

Draft Luol Deng: The most complete player in the 6-10 range in the draft, Deng would give the team someone that could give you some solid scoring and rebounding at SF and make Stackhouse even more expendable.  However, if you take Deng than you're probably not going to land Caron Butler a year later, which means that you just might have to trade Kwame for (gasp!) market value.

Draft Andre Iguodala: Iggy has the higher scoring average than Deng or Childress but he's not quite as good as a passer or rebounder and he has a slightly lower FG%.  On the bright side, you'd have another Wildcat to pair with Arenas and he would add gobs of athleticism to the team.

Stick with Harris: Arenas + Harris = Fastest backcourt ever

Trade up: The top two picks are probably off-limits, but with the right offer, you just might get that #3 or #4 pick.  The question you must ask is if Ben Gordon or Shaun Livingston are worth making a move.

Trade down: If you find the Childress/Deng/Iguodala trifecta underwhelming, you could always trade down to get someone like Andris Biedrins, Josh Smith, or Al Jefferson.  Then again, you could end up trading down for the immortal Robert Swift or Sebastian Telfair.  Hey, I never said this would be easy.

Draft Rafael Araujo: He could still pan out right?  Right?

Editor's Note: Part V of our Summer Project.  Previous profiles are of Robert Pack, Jim McIlvane, LeDell Eackles, and Tim Legler.

This profile looks back on a player from the 2004-05 squad that made it to the second round of the playoffs.  Your writer is JakeTheSnake.

In my closet you'll find three Wizard jerseys.  Obviously, it would hard to really write effectively over here if I didn't own a Gilbert Arenas #0 jersey.  I've also got a Antawn Jamison jersey that I was fortunate enough to get on sale right after Christmas.  Then there's a Wizards jersey with a number 1 on it.  It doesn't belong to Nick Young and sadly, it's not a Rod Strickland jersey.  No, my Wizards #1 jersey is a Jared Jeffries special.  If you don't believe me, here's your visual evidence:

Continue reading this post »

I'll be honest, I really don't how to preface this post, so let's jump past the thin candy shell and right into the ooey-gooey chocolate center of the post shall we?

WHAT THE WIZARDS WOULD BE IF THEY WERE CANDY

Gilbert Arenas = Pixy Stix: The complaints about both are the same: Very sweet, good for a quick thrill, not a whole lot of filling substance.  Yet you rarely see fans of either complain about feeling empty.

Andray Blatche = Twizzlers: Both could benefit from being a little thicker.

Dee Brown = Skittles: In the interest of full disclosure, nothing about Dee Brown's game reminds me of Skittles, but whenever I watch him, he reminds me of a hyper kid running around after eating a whole bag Skittles.

Caron Butler = Snickers: With a Snickers bar, you're getting a nice, diverse package of chocolate, nougat, peanuts, and caramel.  Caron also gives you a little bit of everything and puts it into a sweet package that everyone can enjoy.  (Not to mention, that every so often you see both wrapped in gold.  But let's not talk about the alternate jerseys right now.)

Antonio Daniels = Hershey's: Sure, there's stuff out there that might taste a little better, or have some fancier packaging, but these two give you what you're looking for every single time.

Brendan Haywood = Peanut Brittle: At first look, they both look kind of clumsy.  Brendan isn't exactly Pete Maravich and peanut brittle looks like a rejected batch of semi-processed peanut butter.  But when you get down to it, you realize that both are pretty doggone good.

Antawn Jamison = M&M's: A timeless classic.  And like Jamison's shot, you can find M&M's in just about every variety imaginable.

JaVale McGee = Bacon Bar: At first, they both sound kind of gross (Chocolate flavored bacon?  An athletic 7-footer that has 3 pt. range but struggles with rebounding?) but they're both intriguing enough to make you want to try it out at least once.

Dominic McGuire = Shock Tarts: Need I say more?

Oleksiy Pecherov = Laffy Taffy: They give you some flavor, and they're good for a chuckle.  What more could you ask for?

Darius Songaila = Twix: What? He likes things dipped in chocolate.

DeShawn Stevenson = Everlasting Gobstopper: You can try to wear them down, but you know at the end of the day that they're too durable to let something like saliva or a knee injury keep them from playing.

Etan Thomas = Gourmet Chocolate: It's a decent product, just a little more pricey than it should be.

Nick Young = Airheads: Being the youthful player that he is, Nick Young makes some decisions on the court that make you wonder what's going on in his mind.  But then you remember that one day the maturity will come and then we can stop wondering about his head and we can devote all of our focus to his air.

Tonight, for the first time we'll get a look at the newest additions to the Wizards, Javale McGee and Dee Brown.  Tonight, we'll also get our first look at Vladimir Veremeenko, who you may remember was the WIzards' 2nd round choice in 2006.  Unlike our first round pick from '06, Oleksiy Pecherov, VV hasn't had a chance to play with the team until now.

While gaining clearance to play in this year's Summer League doesn't make Veremeenko's buyout from BC Khimki any easier, it does give a chance to see how he does against players of NBA or near NBA talent, which will go a long way in helping management determine if he'll be worth buying out at some point down the line.

From the little that I've been able to find about Veremeenko on the interwebs, it looks like we won't be getting a stiff:

He runs the court very well, and enjoys a very good first step and nice handles that allow him to penetrate, giving him the ability to punish his defender with his superior quickness. He can also produce from the low post, although he usually looks for a turnaround jumper in those situations.

Veremeenko understands the game pretty well. You can feel it while watching him pass the ball, quickly and to the right place, or just by observing his efficient movement without the ball while looking for room to operate.

He's quite a nice team defender, careful with rotations and sometimes even energetic while trying to come up with a block from the weak side, showing a nice vertical leap and good timing. He has good lateral quickness for the power forward spot as well.

Not only does he have that going for him, but he's also is familiar with the Princeton offense, so he won't have to deal with the learning curve that other players have have struggled with when they're learning the offense.

His strengths show up quite nicely in the stat sheet, where his shooting numbers continue to rise.  This season he's shooting at nearly a 65% clip while hitting 50% from beyond the arc.  That's pretty daggone good.  You'll notice that most of his other averages are down, but that's a result of playing less minutes which I think can be attributed to BC Khimki using him as a spark plug off the bench in the same way Dallas used Jamison during the year he spent with the Mavs, but I can't say for sure, since I just haven't been able to get the TiVo to record to Russian SuperLeague games yet.

Like most of you, I'm salivating over what the three headed monster of Dee Brown, Nick Young, and Dominic McGuire will bring on the fast break, but make sure to keep an eye on the mystery man from Belarus tonight as well.

It's been nearly three days since Gilbert Arenas re-signed, and I realize we haven't had much discussion about it, save from the initial FanShot.  That's mostly my fault; I've had trouble getting to the computer during the Holiday weekend. 

So, here goes.

It's clear that every side got what they wanted with this contract.  Arenas may not have received a maximum deal, but he still made out far better than many feel he should have.  He did settle for 16 million less than the max, but keep in mind that he negotiated this contract without an agent, who would have taken about a 10-percent commission on Gilbert's new salary.  Ten percent of 127 million is 12.7 million, so Gilbert would have pocketed only 114.3 million dollars on a max contract.  This way, he gets to keep the entire 111 million. 

Better yet, because he took less money, Arenas' image suddenly improved dramatically.  He can say he was a man of his word; that he's a "team player" because he allowed the front office a little more room under the luxury tax.  He can say he's doing something that nearly every other star won't do, all while still pocketing enough money to keep him set for life even if he gets hurt again. 

Ernie Grunfeld and Abe Pollin got what they wanted too, though.  Ernie got a little more room under the luxury tax to take the sting off some of the mistakes he's made to get to this point.  Depending on how the official numbers shake out, he might have enough money to bring Roger Mason back or, better yet, find the backup small forward we desperately need (I'm hoping for the latter).  Abe wins because he has a team that's ready to contend right now, even if they haven't been able to really contend in the past.  He won't have to suffer through a rebuilding project as his health diminishes.

The only thing left to determine is whether the Wizards get what they want, i.e. a deep playoff run with this group.  The answer to that question is something nobody can definitively say right now.  There's just not enough evidence of the Arenas/Butler/Jamison trio being healthy to determine its ceiling. All we really have is the end of 2006, when Butler finally broke into the starting lineup, and the first three months of 2007, before Jamison's injury, Butler's nagging problems, and Arenas and Butler's season-ending woes. 

What do we have there?  In 2006, the Wizards started slowly, but came on strong at the end of the season once Butler started to emerge.  They lost to the Cavaliers in the first round, but that series could have gone either way.  In 2007, the Wizards were near the top of the Eastern Conference before Antawn's injury, though there were plenty of caveats.  The conference was really down (nobody won more than 53 games in 2007), the Wizards were playing terrible defense, Arenas was hitting shots at a ridiculous rate and the Wizards' point differential was close to even.  Then again, that team also had to deal with feuding centers and a bench that really only had two capable reserves (AD and Etan/Haywood).

And...that's it.  Many detractors will point to this year's series against Cleveland as further evidence of the Big 3's collective shortcomings.  All three of them played, and the Wizards could only win when Arenas sat out.  But Arenas was severely hurt during this series, and since the Wizards had completely changed their style without him, they weren't able to adjust to his presence in such a short amount of time.  Those may sound like excuses, but I don't see why we should place too much emphasis on that one playoff series.  Even if we did, we have to consider the fact that, without Arenas in a must-win Game 6 on their home court, the Wizards completely laid an egg.

The point here is that nobody can really say this team's ceiling has been met.  Sure, they haven't won a single series together, but there was only one in which they were fully healthy.  Framing it in a "status quo" sort of way is silly.  We haven't seen a healthy Gilbert Arenas with this group of Wizards.  The last time it happened was in December of 2006, and that group took off, even though the team's depth stunk.

So let's stick to what we do know.  We know that, no matter how many times pundits and bloggers will claim that Arenas isn't worth this amount of money, the market said he was.  Golden State was prepared to offer Arenas a maximum contract despite all the shortcomings anyone wants to trot out.  Arenas could have received as much money as he possibly could have made there, albeit for one less year.  If the Wizards offered less than the maximum, Arenas could have just signed Golden State's more lucrative package, and the Wizards would have had nothing to show for it.  A sign-and-trade possibility probably wouldn't have worked either, not with the Warriors' ability to get Arenas without giving anything up.  Gilbert's knee problems may not have killed his free agent market value, but they surely would have killed his sign-and-trade value, with teams far less willing to give up players for a twice-injured Arenas than giving up cap room.

We also know that if the Wizards let Arenas go, they would not have been able to replace him with a top-notch free agent this year.  After re-signing Jamison, the Wizards' team salary was 54 million.  With the salary cap set at 58 million, they could only have used the mid-level and low-level exceptions to improve the roster.  The only thing that would have been gained is extra room under the luxury tax.  I don't know about you, but I'd rather have Arenas than extra space under the tax.

The only other option, besides the remote possibility of a sign-and-trade, would have been to let both Arenas and Jamison go.  The Wizards would have had around 14 million dollars under the salary cap.  Presumably, their nucleus would have been Butler, a marquee free agent (e.g. Corey Maggette), Brendan Haywood, a bunch of veteran role players, and a bunch of young guys who aren't there yet.  Worse yet, that would have likely been their roster for the next two years, since the Wizards have no contracts that expire after this season.  None of us know how long it would have taken for Ernie to rebuild the roster, but we know that he wouldn't be doing it around a dynamic young stud.  He'd be doing it around Butler, an outstanding player in his own right, but one who's 28, not 23 or 24.  By the time that group is ready to contend again, Butler might be past his prime. 

So with all those alternatives out there, I'm confident when I say that re-signing Arenas and Jamison at all costs is the best move out there.  It's not a perfect move, not by any stretch.  Arenas needs to be healthy, first and foremost.  If he is, he needs to be a better teammate than he was this past season.  He needs to become more committed defensively as well.  Jamison needs to continue to beg off Father Time and show that his renewed commitment to playing inside wasn't just the result of a contract-year push.  Additionally, because of our lack of cap flexibility, either Ernie's going to have to get even more creative, or Abe is going to have to shove off his notoriously frugal ways and allow Ernie to go over the luxury tax to bring Abe the title he so desperately wants.

It's a situation full of risks, and the price it costs makes those risks even greater.  But considering the alternatives, I don't see any other way that makes more sense.

[Note: Yes, I posted this here and at Gilbertology.  When I was writing this up, I wasn't sure which site it would be better suited for, so I'm posting it at both.]

If you caught any Celtics game last season, they you're probably familiar with their rallying cry of "Ubuntu" which translates to "I am because we are."  Doc Rivers was able to get everyone on the team from the All-Stars to the scrubs to buy into the Ubuntu philosophy as they all sacrificed their individual games for the good of the team.   Sure, the whole thing was pretty corny, but you can't argue with the results.

Chanting "Ubuntu!" after every huddle doesn't guarantee success, but practicing the principles behind it guide every successful team.  Doc knew that in order to get the C's to buy into that mentality, he had to work from the top down.  When he was able to get The Big 3 sold on Ubuntu, the rest of the team followed suit.  Teams take on the character of their best player.  It's not a surprise that the Spurs are a defensive minded team that executes flawlessly on offense but lacks flair, just like Tim Duncan.  Likewise, it shouldn't come as a surprise when a team with a dysfunctional leader plays dysfunctionally.

Over the last few years, Antawn and Caron have been the captains and the vocal leaders of the team, but more than anyone else this team follows Gilbert Arenas.  He might not fit the classic profile of team leader, but like I said before, the team takes the character of the best player.   Does a quirky team with explosive offensive ability and defensive woes remind you more of Arenas or Butler and Jamison?

That's why Gilbert's decision to take less money than he was offered could prove to be the move that takes the Wizards from a perennial one-and-done to legitimate championship contender.  By taking less than the max, he's demonstrating to the team that he's willing to make sacrifices to make the team better and that he's expecting the same commitment from everyone else.

Only time will tell what each player is willing to give up in order to get to the ultimate goal of an NBA championship, but if they follow the tone that Gilbert's set here in the same way that they have in the past, we should be ready to see a Wizards team that's ready to embrace the concept of Ubuntu.

Sir Hollinger, you know I like you as an analyst, but I need to take issue to this:

In three seasons with the trio of Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, the Wizards have won 43, 41 and 42 games and haven't made it past the first round of the playoffs. The three players are 26, 28 and 32, respectively, so it seems likely that we've seen about the best we're going to get from them. They're an average team, and without an infusion of vastly better players around them, they'll keep being an average team.

Yet instead of blowing that trio up, the Wizards took a Bob-Beamonesque leap of faith this week. First they extended Jamison for four years and $50 million, and then they offered Arenas a monstrous six-year, $127 million package. Given that Arenas is coming off a major knee injury that kept him sidelined nearly all of last season and is heavily dependant on his quickness to be an elite scorer, his offer in particular appears to be a reach...

The Wizards' alternate reality was letting both go in free agency and using what would have been a big chunk of cap space to try to remake the team around Butler -- their best player this past season and the least expensive of the three going forward -- and whomever else they could have signed. At worst, it seems they would have come away with Maggette, and their cap situation would have been far better over the next five seasons -- in fact, they might have been able to get into the LeBron bidding in 2010; James recently named Washington, D.C., as one of his favorite cities...

It sure seems to me the fear of losing out on big-name stars caused Washington to miss out on a fantastic opportunity to remake its roster.

First of all, here's how that first sentence should read (bold are the additions):

In three seasons with the trio of Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler all healthy at the same time, the Wizards have won 42 games in 2006, despite Butler starting the season on the bench, and were near the top of the Eastern Conference and on top of their division in 2007. They haven't made it past the first round of the playoffs in two series at full strength, losing a tight series in 2006 with Butler nursing a broken finger and losing in 2008 with Arenas slow after coming back from knee surgery.

I'm pushing it a little with the external factors at play, but it bothers me to no end when people talk about how this team has never gotten out of the first round without even mentioning the injuries.  I know, I know, everyone suffers injuries, but how many teams lose their two best player two weeks before the playoffs?  How many teams lose their star for three-quarters of the season and still manage to be back in the playoffs?  I'm just saying...

And the point about the Big 3's ages...I mean, didn't he say the same thing last year?  Jamison's a little old at 32, but Arenas is still quite young and Butler is right in the middle of his prime.  It's not like we're dealing with a bunch of 35-year olds.

Then, there's this point:

Given that Arenas is coming off a major knee injury that kept him sidelined nearly all of last season and is heavily dependant on his quickness to be an elite scorer, his offer in particular appears to be a reach...

Except Golden State offered a max contract, and Sacramento offered to trade their entire team for Gilbert.  Overpaying?  Maybe, but this isn't like Rashard Lewis last year, where Orlando was literally the only team offering anywhere near a max contract.  The Wizards aren't bidding against themselves, because Arenas could collect the same annual salary with Golden State.

There's also the angle that he might take less to help the team, which isn't mentioned.  I don't think it changes the fact that the Wizards offered the max, but Arenas might not take it, giving us a little bit more room to improve the team.

To his credit, Hollinger does discuss the alternative plan of letting both these guys go and building around Butler.  If we did that, we'd be about 14 million under the cap this year and, if we didn't sign anyone else, a similar amount under the cap next offseason.  If we sign Maggette and re-sign Mason, that'd give us a lineup of Daniels-Butler-Maggette-Blatche-Haywood, with Songaila, Mason and Stevenson as the key reserves.  Then, we'd have about 17 million in expiring contracts in 2010 (Etan, Haywood and Daniels), and we probably would have enough cap room to make a run at an A-list free agent.  But how many of those guys would switch teams anyway?  Does it really make sense to get rid of two of our Big Three for the five percent chance that we could land LeBron or Amare Stoudamire?  I'd rather not worry about that.

The only hope then is that we draft a stud, but our "rebuilt" team is not particularly young and it's probably just good enough to win 30 games in the East.  We'd have to get very lucky to either win the lottery or get a steal in the draft. 

I guess my point is that it makes little sense to completely rebuild when all our role players have deals for the next two years or longer.  That's a long time to hold onto dead-weight contracts.  If those contracts weren't there, then rebuilding might be a better option, but at this point, we're going to have to live with those guys for two years or more had we decided to rebuild.

So yes, it's an option, but not a particularly great one.  It'd take two years to completely rebuild our team, and even then, we may never get this close to being a contender.

Let me be entirely clear here.  Signing Arenas and Jamison to these long-term deals is a risk.  In fact, it's a major risk.  If Arenas isn't healthy, or if Jamison really slows down, Hollinger is right that both of those contracts are major albatrosses.  He's also right that our young guys may never improve, and we will lose a ton of cap flexibility. 

But the alternatives are just as risky in this particular situation.  Rebuilding is a dicey scenario, especially when a huge part of the plan is to get in on the 2010 free agent sweepstakes.  Re-signing Jamison, but not Arenas means we still don't have much cap room and we're stuck with a veteran team with the upside of 40-45 wins.  Re-signing Arenas, but not Jamison gives us more room under the tax, but it also means we have to rely on Blatche to take a major step forward for us to keep up.

Re-signing both means we have more hope of competing than any other scenario.  Sure, a lot of things have to break right, but I don't see why this team can't win 55 or more games if everything Hollinger lists breaks right.  For a city that has been a laughingstock for so long, we deserve the chance.