Ah yes, our seven-man smorgasbord of veterans with faults and unproven youngsters.  Depending on who you ask, this unit may or may not need to be consolidated or upgraded, but for the time being, it's what we've got.

And what, exactly, do we have?  We have two solid starters, one that's an absolute ace offensively and normally a sieve defensively and one that's awkward offensively and an underrated presence defensively.  We have two veterans who are limited, but are trusted by the coach even when they are blocking players who deserve some of their minutes.  Then, we have three young guys, all with the potential of being a difference maker, but all projects that need playing time despite being in different stages of their development.  

You don't have to be Eddie Jordan to have trouble allocating 96 minutes a game to this group.  (Though he's particularly "good" at it).  

There are so many trade-offs to consider.  Play Etan Thomas for his rebounding...but do so at the expense of Brendan Haywood's defense and (maybe) attitude.  Play Darius Songaila for his offensive smarts...but do so at the expense of Andray Blatche's much-needed development.  Play Antawn Jamison 40 minutes a night for his essential all-around contributions...but do so at the expense of providing developmental minutes to Blatche, JaVale McGee and Oleksiy Pecherov, projects drafted to eventually replace him.

96 minutes, seven guys, all power forwards or centers. How would you specifically allocate the minutes? 

Some considerations:

• Last year, only Jamison played more than 20 percent of the team's minutes at a position other than power forward or center.  Otherwise, these guys were exclusively playing the 4 or the 5. 
• In 2006/07, when Haywood played more than 25 minutes in a game, the Wizards were 18-8.
• According to Basketballvalue.com, Darius Songaila had the second-highest adjusted plus/minus on the team last year, behind only Jamison.  
• The highest PER of any reserve on the team last year belonged to Andray Blatche at 15.5.  In 2006/07, that honor belonged to Etan Thomas.
• To review: Though Haywood has never posted a higher defensive rebound percentage than Thomas in a year both played, the team's defensive efficiency has always been better with Haywood on the floor instead of Thomas.  

Good luck!

Editor's Note: Bumping this back to the top for further discussion. -PM

Warning: Long post

One of the biggest criticisms of our offseason is that we killed our salary cap and luxury tax flexibility for a team that is not quite a championship contender.  The idea is that we're basically stuck with the club we have unless we want to go over the luxury tax. 

We've talked about ways to use our assets in 2010 to land an impact player, but haven't really discussed whether we're doomed to go over the tax if we do that.  Are we really doomed to going over the tax? 

First things first, here's our team salaries for the next five years (click on the picture to make it bigger).  The player salaries are from Sham Sports and the salary cap and luxury tax estimates are from Canis Hoopus.

Grey=Unguaranteed | Brown=Early Termination | Blue=Team option | Green=Player option | Red=Qualifying offer | Orange=My best guess

As you can see, if the salary cap and luxury tax numbers go up at the same rate, we're going to be over the luxury tax next year with 14 players.  That's even after switching Gilbert Arenas' normal first- and second-year salaries, which is my only explanation for how we went from having 3.4 million dollars under the luxury tax this year to somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million.  Having Arenas take a pay cut in Year 2 makes it more likely that we'll avoid the luxury tax next year, but from the looks of things, we'll be over it anyway.

To put it bluntly, that's really bad.  Even if the luxury tax figure ends up a little larger than that estimate and allows us to stay under with the 14 players we already have, it means that we aren't going to be able to use our draft pick next year without going over the luxury tax.  (As an aside, this is another reason why drafting a project player that plays the same position as your other project players was not smart, especially when there were other positions to fill).   For those of you who were annoyed when we sold Bill Walker to the Celtics, get ready to be even more annoyed when we sell both our draft picks. 

That's all to keep the team we currently have through the 2009/2010 season, but what if we make an upgrade in 2010, as discussed here?  For the purposes of this exercise, let's say we traded Etan Thomas, Antonio Daniels, Nick Young and a first-round pick in the 2010 draft to Atlanta for Joe Johnson and some minimum-salary guy like Randolph Morris.  Here's how our payroll structure would look:

Our depth chart would be as follows:

PG: Arenas/Brown

SG: Johnson/Stevenson

SF: Butler/McGuire

PF: Jamison/Songaila/Blatche

C: Haywood/Pecherov/McGee/Morris

About the same, except thinner in the backcourt and younger up front.  But our payroll in 2009 remains the same, albeit with one less player.  Going with 13 players is what we did last season, and that proved to be a mini-disaster.

More importantly, let's look at what happens after 2010.  We have only eight players under contract and only 18 million dollars under the luxury tax to fill those spots(ignore the 9).  We also have no first-round pick, since we traded it to Atlanta.  18 million dollars may not be enough to re-sign Johnson and Haywood, much less sign four other players to fill out the roster.  Clearly, our only recourse is to go over the luxury tax...

Unless we dump some salary right now. 

In Antonio Daniels, Etan Thomas and Darius Songaila, we have three guys making mid-level money or more that are likely not major parts of our future.  At the very least, they're either overpaid or they hurt our long-term flexibility.  Etan and AD are probably worth keeping because of their expiring contract value in 2010 (plus who backs up Arenas without AD?). 

That leaves Songaila as a guy who could be moved.  In our player evaluation of him, I made the case that while his numbers as a whole looked bad this year, he was playing extremely well down the stretch and was our best backup big (whereas Andray Blatche filled that role in the first four months of the season).  On the other hand, he's not getting any better and plays the same position as our best prospect, a guy who we're counting on heavily in the future.  Combine that with his salary, which goes all the way until 2011, and that he has some value around the league (well, more than Etan or AD at least because his contract is smaller), trying to move him, either now or at the trade deadline, for a player whose contract expires after next season seems somewhat realistic and prudent. 

I took a look for players expiring this year that make about as much as Darius Songaila and I came up with the following list:

• Damon Jones: 4,460,186
• Joe Smith: 4,795,000
• Zaza Pachulia: 4,000,000
• Steven Hunter (opt-out clause): 3,862,600
• Jeff Foster: 5,500,000
• Desmond Mason: 5,300,000
• Greg Bucker: 4,010,005 (non-guaranteed contract in 2010)
• Fabricio Oberto: 3,600,000 (non-guaranteed contract in 2010)
• Anthony Parker: 4,550,000

I strongly doubt a team would swap a big for another big with a longer contract, so unless they fall off like crazy next year, we can probably rule out Smith, Pachulia, Hunter, Foster and Oberto.  The Raptors aren't trading Anthony Parker as long as he's their starting shooting guard, so I don't think that's going to happen.  That leaves Damon Jones, Greg Buckner and Desmond Mason.  Cleveland has plenty of bigs, so I don't see them being an ideal trade partner, though I suppose they'd trade a guy like Jones who does nothing for them if they could (especially if they move Anderson Varejao or Smith for bigger pieces).  Memphis isn't looking to add salary, so I doubt Songaila would be of much use to them.

Then, there's Desmond Mason.  Milwaukee traded for Richard Jefferson and drafted Joe Alexander, so they are overloaded at the small forward position.  Meanwhile, at power forward, all they have is Charlie Villanueva, and he plays a lot smaller than his frame.  As for us, Mason can play behind Caron Butler, giving us a backup small forward that we need.  I'd probably rather make that trade at the deadline so we can see how Andray is playing this year and how healthy Etan is, but then again, Milwaukee might not be contending then, so I'd even do it before the season.  Seems like a win-win.

Say we make that trade.  Here's our salary situation.

Now, we're over 4 million dollars under the luxury tax next season.  We can use that money on two draft picks, or if we're really concerned about our youth, we can use our first-round pick, sell our second-round selection, and use the remaining money to sign a veteran. 

Here's the kicker, though.  Say we made that same trade with Atlanta for Joe Johnson, draft a point guard with our pick and then sign someone like Jason Collins to the bi-annual exception to back up Haywood.  Here's how things break down:

Our depth chart would be as follows:

PG: Arenas/2009 first-rounder/Brown

SG: Johnson/Stevenson

SF: Butler/McGuire

PF: Jamison/Blatche/Morris

C: Haywood/Collins/Pecherov/McGee

That's a solid team, especially if Blatche takes another step forward.  A little young up front, but we could always renounce Pecherov's rights next year and sign another power forward for cheap.  More importantly, it gives us more flexibility in 2010 to re-sign everyone and still stay under the tax.  We have one less roster spot to fill and 2 million dollars more to fill it.  Not ideal, but it's better than what we'd have if we kept Songaila.  Even if the combined extensions for Haywood and Johnson come close to equaling that number annually, we can backload their deals and get creative filling the last two or three spots. 

Obviously, there are lots of contingencies, and we could make life easier on ourselves by trading for someone cheaper than Johnson (say, Rip Hamilton), but trading Songaila for any expiring contract seems like the best way to give ourselves that little bit of flexibility necessary to make a far bigger move and still stay under the luxury tax.

Warning: The post under this one is far more interesting.

I'm not quite sure how this managed to slip through the radar, but in Chris Sheridan's Olympic preview, he mentioned that Darius Songaila won't be playing in this year's Olympics due to a back injury.  No word on how severe the injury is, but I'm going to guess that it's not significant enough that it will keep him from being able to play in time for training camp in October, since there hasn't been a big hubbub about the injury.

As you'll recall, Songaila also suffered a back injury back in 2006 at the World Championships, so one now has to wonder if the FIBA ball's smaller size throws off his body mechanics and causes him to wrench his back (that's sarcasm, people).  While he should be healthy enough to play, I'm still concerned that he might not be 100% by the start of the season.  In 2006, Songaila never really looked all there even after he returned from his injury and in 2007, it took him more than half the season (check the splits) to get his legs under him, after an exhausting summer of basketball with the national team in the FIBA Europe Championship.

In the months to come, there will be lots of time to talk about what, if any, impact this injury will have in the coming season.  In the meantime, here's a little fact to digest on: Only one Wizard has ever played in Olympic competition while under contract with Washington.

That's right, Party John Ramos (Puerto Rico, '04) is the only player to compete in the Olympics while under contract with the Wizards.  It might seem a little embarrassing that Ramos is our only Olympic rep, but we can take pride in knowing that he outscored Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire in their only Olympic meeting.

I'll be honest, I really don't how to preface this post, so let's jump past the thin candy shell and right into the ooey-gooey chocolate center of the post shall we?

WHAT THE WIZARDS WOULD BE IF THEY WERE CANDY

Gilbert Arenas = Pixy Stix: The complaints about both are the same: Very sweet, good for a quick thrill, not a whole lot of filling substance.  Yet you rarely see fans of either complain about feeling empty.

Andray Blatche = Twizzlers: Both could benefit from being a little thicker.

Dee Brown = Skittles: In the interest of full disclosure, nothing about Dee Brown's game reminds me of Skittles, but whenever I watch him, he reminds me of a hyper kid running around after eating a whole bag Skittles.

Caron Butler = Snickers: With a Snickers bar, you're getting a nice, diverse package of chocolate, nougat, peanuts, and caramel.  Caron also gives you a little bit of everything and puts it into a sweet package that everyone can enjoy.  (Not to mention, that every so often you see both wrapped in gold.  But let's not talk about the alternate jerseys right now.)

Antonio Daniels = Hershey's: Sure, there's stuff out there that might taste a little better, or have some fancier packaging, but these two give you what you're looking for every single time.

Brendan Haywood = Peanut Brittle: At first look, they both look kind of clumsy.  Brendan isn't exactly Pete Maravich and peanut brittle looks like a rejected batch of semi-processed peanut butter.  But when you get down to it, you realize that both are pretty doggone good.

Antawn Jamison = M&M's: A timeless classic.  And like Jamison's shot, you can find M&M's in just about every variety imaginable.

JaVale McGee = Bacon Bar: At first, they both sound kind of gross (Chocolate flavored bacon?  An athletic 7-footer that has 3 pt. range but struggles with rebounding?) but they're both intriguing enough to make you want to try it out at least once.

Dominic McGuire = Shock Tarts: Need I say more?

Oleksiy Pecherov = Laffy Taffy: They give you some flavor, and they're good for a chuckle.  What more could you ask for?

Darius Songaila = Twix: What? He likes things dipped in chocolate.

DeShawn Stevenson = Everlasting Gobstopper: You can try to wear them down, but you know at the end of the day that they're too durable to let something like saliva or a knee injury keep them from playing.

Etan Thomas = Gourmet Chocolate: It's a decent product, just a little more pricey than it should be.

Nick Young = Airheads: Being the youthful player that he is, Nick Young makes some decisions on the court that make you wonder what's going on in his mind.  But then you remember that one day the maturity will come and then we can stop wondering about his head and we can devote all of our focus to his air.

Tonight, the Wizards' Summer League season comes to an end with a game against the Suns.  Other than seeing Darius Songaila playing for Lithuania in the Olympics next month, this will be the last chance that you'll get to see any Wizards in action until October.

I'm doubting that we'll see any dramatic revelations from Nick or JaVale tonight, but I'm still hopeful that I'm wrong.  If nothing else, we get to see more of Andray and Dominic doing their thing and we'll get a look at some of the players that have come through the college ranks in the local area with Jonathan Wallace, DJ Strawberry and Ekene Ibekwe all playing tonight.

This is an open thread, so discuss if a golden opportunity was missed by not using the headline "Tree gets the axe" for this article here.

Go (Summer)WIZARDS!

In last week's edition of Pollin', where we asked if you would try to make a move to aquire Rasheed Wallace, we had our narrowest vote to date.  By two votes, the majority said no to making a move.  While I think most people would look past his faults if he could be acquired without sacrificing much, his salary makes it a tough move to make. 

The only trades that would have any chance of working would be this and this.  Obviously Detroit wouldn't want to touch Etan's contract, and the Wizards wouldn't want to give up 3 of their 4 best frontcourt players for a one-year rental, so I wouldn't run to the store to get your Wallace #36 Wizard jersey anytime soon.

Now, as promised last week, this week's poll focuses on biggest, non-trick shot of the year.  Since Caron's shot to beat the Cavs was already voted as the Play of the Year, it's also out of the running.  So essentially, you're voting for the biggest, non-trick, non-playoff shot of the year.

After the jump, a more detailed look at each of the candidates...

Continue reading this post »

Previously:

• Etan Thomas
• Oleksiy Pecherov
• Dominic McGuire
• Nick Young
• Andray Blatche
• Roger Mason

Stats: Per-game: 19.4 minutes, 6.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists

Per-36: 11.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists

Percentages: 45.8 FG%, 91.8 FT%, 45.8 eFG%, 49.6 TS%

Advanced (explanations): 11.8 PER, 10.2 REB%, 14.2 AST%, 17.3 Usg%, 14.7 TOV%, 102 ORtg, 11 DRtg, -3.5 WSAA (Win Shares Above Average).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pradamaster: Darius Songaila's numbers make it seem like he had an awful year, but I think this is one instance where the numbers cannot tell the whole story.  Whereas someone like Andray Blatche sees his production vary from game to game, Songaila is very consistent, and for someone counted on as a frontcourt reserve, that's important.  He's also the team's best cutter, its best passer for a big man, and while he's not much of a defender, he usually gives a lot of effort on that end.  While in the end the production may have been disappointing, Songaila did have value this season.

We should all hope that the Darius Songaila we see next season is the one we saw in the last two months of this season.  Songaila slogged through November and December, then bottomed out in January, averaging  3.7 points and 2.5 rebounds in just under 15 minutes of play.  He even got a DNP-CD in a game against Detroit in December, which shocked me because Songaila always seemed like one of Eddie's boys.  In the last two months of the season, though, Songaila really turned things around.  He averaged 8.6 points on 49.6% shooting in 22.4 minutes in March, then upped his point average to 8.8 in April while increasing his rebound average to 5.6.  Against Cleveland, he was effective until "the slap" against LeBron.  Interestingly, Songaila's improvement coincided with Blatche's decline, and whether that's a coincidence can be debated forever.

Songaila's problems are things that cannot be fixed, but they're concerning anyway.  He remains a terrible rebounder for his position, even though he picked it up in the last part of the season.  He hangs on the perimeter too much, and his best shot, the mid-range jumper, is the lowest percentage shot in the game.  He's too slow defensively to keep up with quick forwards, though he improved his foul rate significantly this season.  Unless he magically grows two inches, those are things we have to live with.  For an 8th or 9th man on a team with strong rebounders, that's okay, but he's the 7th man on a team that, save for the undersized Antawn Jamison and the injured Etan Thomas, doesn't have any bruisers. 

The problem with dumping him, however, is that Songaila's game doesn't work well unless he's in the Princeton.  He's excellent at cutting, a key part of the offense, and he sets good screens and makes solid passes.  On a team that doesn't have a motion-type offense, those skills can go to waste, but not on the Wizards.  That means, essentially, that we'll never be able to trade him.  He loses value once he goes to another team, and his contract, which runs for the next three seasons, doesn't make things any easier.

All this means that we'll probably see Songaila for the duration of his contract.  That's not such a bad thing, but it underscores why we need Blatche to step forward and become the player he can be.

JakeTheSnake: For the first half of the season, Darius Songaila was easily the worst player that was getting regular minutes.  His passing was still rock solid, but that was about it.  He couldn't knock down that open 15-footer that he loves to shoot, his rebounding was abysmal and he couldn't guard anyone with a hint of athleticism.  Right before the All-Star break he started to come around and he became a valuable part of the rotation.  His shot started falling again, the defense got a little better, and he was even able to take some guys off the dribble from time to time.  The rebounding still wasn't great, but I can live with that I suppose.

In hindsight, playing with Lithuania this summer probably hurt him more at the start of the season than any of us originally anticipated.  Once he got his legs back in the second half of the season, his play returned to normal.  This is where some people might get on their soapbox and talk about how Darius needs to focus his efforts to the team that paying him millions of dollars, but I'm not going to fault a player for trying to represent his country.  I'd rather have him playing extra basketball than sitting on his couch getting out of shape, not that Darius is that kind of guy.  I guess what I'm trying to say is that we'll probably see the pattern next year, but I'm OK with that.

Let's just do everyone a favor and keep Darius from playing center next year.  I think that's a win-win scenario for everyone.

Truthaboutit: More than anyone else on the team, Darius Songaila had a full share of detractors this past season. Sure he took an occasional ill-advised shot. And perhaps his 6'9" (or 8") frame wasn't enough to deal with the sizable tasks asked of him. But Darius was always up to the challenge, and in my opinion, the type of key role player that winners need.

The main issue with Songaila, more than shot selection, is rebounding. His rebound rate was below that of both Dominic McGuire (11.7) and Oleksiy Pecherov (12.1). Darius still out-rebounded Caron Butler per 36 minutes (6.3, good enough for 6th on the team), but that's not saying anything at all. Even without athleticism, you'd expect Songaila would have the tactic to do better than a couple rookies. When you think about the needs from a power forward, and the woes on the glass for the Wizards, D-Song's board effort comes up as a disappointment. When factoring Songaila's on-ball defense, or lack thereof, I can certainly sympathize with those who are emphatic about limiting his presence on the court.

Now consider the offense that Eddie Jordan runs, a pro-style Princeton. When operating at a higher pace, which we all know occurred less in 07-08 than in years before, Songaila has the veteran savvy to move with a purpose....whether it be posting up, or setting high ball screens in transition.

Songaila's true bread and butter within the offense comes with his pick-and-pop-ability. He shoots with confidence, has a fairly quick release for a big man, and seems to have range that extends slightly beyond the college 3-point line. Not only can D-Song knock down the J when called upon by an opposing defense focusing on a driver, but he has the ability to see and make the next pass, perhaps adjusting to the shifting D giving someone else a better look. Songaila's Ast-% and 'Assists Per 36' were both good enough for 5th on the team in 07-08.

Hopefully in the future, we will be seeing more Andray Blatche as the first big off the bench as opposed to Darius Songaila. I think Darius is an ideal guy to have fighting with Etan Thomas or Dominic McGuire, depending on the situation, for the next big to get minutes. Some may question Songaila's contract amount for playing such a role. To me, it's not terrible (3-years, $13.578 million left). I'd certainly rather have that instead of the amount owed to Etan (2-years, $14.219 million).

Next season, this year's 19.4 minutes per game could dip to below 14 per for D-Song....but that's okay. Darius Songaila is the type of player who will give his all no matter how long he plays, and that's why I'm cool with him being a Wizard. Besides, it would be nice if D-Song had a future chance to give LeBron James his Crocodile Dundee moment with a real chop to the face instead of an inadvertently caused side fist.

Continue the Songaila discussion in the comments.

With a whopping 62% of the vote, Brendan Haywood was selected as the Wizards' Most Improved Player this season.  In honor of his selection, here's some Tarheel-on-Tarheel action as Haywood blocks Vince Carter:

Roger Mason finished 2nd with 18%, Caron and DeShawn finished 3rd and 4th respectively.

This week, the question to ponder is "Which current Wizard would make for the best head coach?"  I got the idea from a post from Brian Scalabrine J.E. Skeets on Ball Don't Lie, who bounced some ideas for some players from around the NBA who would make for good NBA coaches, including Derek Fisher, Sam Cassell, Darrell Armstrong, and Antawn Jamison.

I think Jamison has what it takes to be a good head coach someday, although for some reason I get the feeling he'd rather coach in the college ranks than he would in the NBA, but that's just a gut feeling.

Antonio Daniels is another name that gets bounced around as a potential coaching candidate that gets bounced around a lot.  If nothing else, I think he'd have an advantage since it seems like veteran backup point guards almost always end up as coaches in one form or another.

I think it's safe to guess that Jamison and Daniels will gather the most votes this week, but don't look over some of the other players on the team.  Etan Thomas certainly has the IQ to be a good head coach someday.  It might be a little weird to see some 50 year old guy in dreadlocks writing poetry on the sidelines, but it could work.  How about Gilbert Arenas?  The offense might be a little unconventional, but you know that they'd be practicing it at each of the 5 daily practices the team would have.

As always, the choice is yours.  And since this is strictly a hypothetical question, any line of reasoning to come to your answer is acceptable.  Vote away!

Last week you voted, and Caron's game winner in Game 5 of the playoffs beat out Nick Young's dunk over LeBron and DeShawn's dagger to beat New Orleans to be voted as the play of the year.

Below you'll see this week's poll and after the jump, you'll get reasons for why each player on the Wizards deserves to be the most improved player this season.

Continue reading this post »

Like Prada said, it's been a great season.   It might not have the best ending, but I still don't think this team has anything to be ashamed of.  Before we start delving into all the off-season stuff, let's give some thanks for the season that was.

Thanks to Ernie Grunfeld for putting together a team that's been able make the playoffs for 4 straight years, something that hasn't happened in the district in 20 years.

Thanks to Eddie Jordan for never giving up.  There were several points in the season where you could've thrown up the white flag and gone into tank mode when different players went down, but you never gave up on this team.

Thanks to Antawn Jamison for being the epitome of consistency and professionalism all season long.  Your 20-10 season won't soon be forgotten.

Thanks to Caron Butler for the big shots, the posters, and everything in-between.

Thanks to Brendan Haywood for finally putting an end to the instability at center this year with career highs all across the board.

Thanks to Antonio Daniels for holding down the fort at point guard while Gilbert was injured most of the season.  Your on-court leadership was a big part of why the Wizards were as successful as they were this season.

Thanks to DeShawn Stevenson for being the Wizards' Iron Man.

Thanks to Roger Mason Jr. for being such a pleasant surprise this season.  You showed this season that you don't have to be a brick layer to have an appreciation for architecture.

Thanks to Darius Songaila for providing some much needed front court consistency off the bench.  Best of luck competing with Lithuania in Beijing this summer.  Hopefully everyone there appreciates your Borat impressions.

Thanks to Andray Blatche for his continued improvement.  You'll only get better as you get more experience under your belt.

Thanks to Gilbert Arenas for trying his best to get back on the court and help the team.  it didn't work out the way we all would've liked, but the intent was clearly there.  Let's hope this off-season finally gets you back to form we all know and love.

Thanks to Nick Young for the dunks.  Here's to many more highlights and dunk contest invite next season.

Thanks to Oleksiy Pecherov for all the humor this season.  Don't get me wrong, your play was solid this year, but the comparisons to Stewie will never stop being awesome.

Thanks to Etan Thomas for showing what true strength is all about.

Thanks to Ivan Carter and Mike Jones (who!) for all the great reporting on the beat this season.  Great work as always.

Thanks to all the great Wizards and non-Wizards blogs for their .

Thanks to WaitingForNextYear and And One for coming over and sparking some good discussion and providing analysis from the other side during the playoff series.  You're welcome here anytime.

Thanks to everyone that's come here and left comments and FanPosts and everything else this season.  Win or lose, you're what makes this fun.

Finally, thanks to Dominic McGuire.  You're what makes the future (and the present) bright.