The Panic Button

by jvflail on Nov 7, 2007 4:51 PM EST

The poll on the main page surprised me. I thought more people would be panicking. Maybe I've had too much coffee today. Maybe my knees are knocking a bit too easily. And maybe, just maybe, I shouldn't be panicking after just 3 games. But listen to me Wiz fans: the writing's on the wall and the words aren't pretty. This 07-08 team is in a bad way from the get-go, and there's no cavalry riding to the rescue.

Here are my 4 reasons why this season's gonna tank:

Gilbert's knee isn't holding up. He's had it drained twice in the past 3 weeks, and he's still saying it's stiff. Does anyone remember his first year here when he tore an abdominal muscle, tried to come back too early, and ended up missing half the season? Even when he did play, he was a shell of his healthy self. I think we're seeing history repeat itself. Gil's gonna try and push through and end up REALLY hurting his knee. Without a healthy Gilbert, this team is Caron Butler and a bunch of schucksters.
The whole continuity theme of this past offseason obviously didn't pan out. If it had worked, we wouldn't be 0-3. The 3 teams we've lost to all had major shake-ups recently (Indiana w/ the Golden State trade, Boston acquiring their big 3, and Orlando signing Rashard Lewis), and all 3 have shot out of the gate.
This weak team somehow managed to get weaker. Ever since EJ started coaching us, our problem has been rebounding and defense. Even that one glorious ear when L. Hughes led the league in steals, we still played pathetic D because our big guys weren't very big. Things have done nothing but deteriorate since then. Big whup that Brendan's having a career 3-game stretch. Nobody else is doing anything, and for every block and rebound Brendan gets, there are 5 other trips down the floor when the opposing team scores easily.
The best case ceiling for this team keeps getting lower. 3 years ago, we beat the short-handed Bulls to make the 2nd round. 2 years ago, we gave Cleveland all they could handle before the refs handed the series to Cleveland in round 1. Last year, Cleveland swatted us like an annoying gnat, but we had the excuse that our 2 best players were hurt. Now look at us: Going back to April 1 of last year, we're 3 - 18 (including playoffs). Say the optimists turn out to be right and the Wiz turn it around to make the playoffs this year. Is there any fear in the eyes of Cleveland, Boston, or Detroit at the prospect of playing us in round 1? Say, thanks to the Southeast's incompetence, the Wiz muster enough wins to win the division. I still don't see us being higher than a 4 seed, and even then we probably wouldn't have home court against the 5 seed (someone from the mix of Orlando, New Jersey, and Chicago is my guess). Should our organization's best case scenario be to eek out a division title in the NBA's JV division and whimper from the playoffs in round 1? I'd rather play for added ping-pong balls in the Derrick Rose sweepstakes.

In conclusion, let me just say that I hope I'm wrong. Putting these panic statements in writing so early in the year is not the smartest thing to do. But we've all been fans of this franchise for a long time. These past 3 years have been mediocre by NBA standards, but a thrill for us. I'm just worried that those will be looked back upon as the glory years.

Yo! This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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more cause for concern

wiz were 3-0 vs both indiana and boston last year. their rocky 4-9 start last year included wins against both those teams.

those are two chalk it up wins from last year they've already given back to the field. much of the wiz success in the previous three seasons has been from consistently beating the bad teams. they get an occasional win against san antonio at home or phoenix on the road, but those are the exceptions rather than the rule.

there are less chumps out there this year.

it now seems obvious to me that gil is going to have a significant recovery process during the beginning of the season. this is similar to stoudemire last year, kobe a couple years ago, and dwade this year. since he's carried the team the last couple years, why weren't expectations set appropriately? why wasn't it a focus of the team to limit his minutes early in the year to help with the recovery process? none of this came from any of the media outlets. this all seems VERY short sighted behavior from the people close to the situation. as a fan, if you don't hear much about it except that he's going to be ready to go, what else are you to expect? he's obviously not ready...

it would have been nice if the team and organization had come out with something other than "we cannot afford to have a slow start again this year". even now, they still seem like they are handling the next few games as a must win situation. big picture, this is not a smart tack for the team to take.

manage gilbert's minutes. take a few more L's if you can build on something from these games. temper the fans expectations. i imagine you'll still sell your fair share of tickets. it'll be better than having people show up to the games and being borderline disgusted with what they see.

this situation could be okay if they just manage the situation appropriately for what it is. i hope i'm wrong, but i see the wizards struggling for a while, and making it worse by having the attitude that they must get everything working right away and trying to force the immediate fix. especially with the contract years for gil and 'tawn, and with ej being on the hot seat.

like jvflail, i'll be happy if i'm wrong on this one.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 7, 2007 6:57 PM EST 0 recs

I Meant to Reply to This in My Post...

hence the subject of my post below. In any case, I agree with most of what you said about rushing Gil back and the team's expectation level. I do take issue with this comment, though:

much of the wiz success in the previous three seasons has been from consistently beating the bad teams.

Whooaattt? Did you miss watching the Hornets game last year? Or maybe you didn't notice the Portland game when Gil promised 50 points against a lottery team? What about the Nuggets game after Mello was suspended and AI was still in Philly? Consistently beating bad teams was not what made the Wizards great last season and any other season I remember. Getting hot and beating anybody (Dallas and Phoenix included) was the real reason, IMO.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 8, 2007 12:50 PM EST up 0 recs

06-07 win breakdown

in any year you'll have some exceptionally good wins (detroit twice, dallas at home, phoenix on the road, lakers on the road) and some exceptionally bad losses (portland twice, new orleans on road, charlotte twice on a home-and-home). those balance eachother out.

on the whole though, check this out:

wiz record

vs. teams >= .500 = 12-27
vs. teams < .500 = 29-14

vs. teams > .55 = 8-17
vs. teams < .45 = 25-10

.45 <= teams <= .55 = 8-14
.45 <= teams <= .50 = 4-8
.50 < teams <= .55 = 4-6

the final three stats seem the most damning. they had a lopsided losing record (8-14) against teams in the middle of the pack.

i suspect you'll continue to see this trend if you go back and look at 05-06, and 04-05.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 8, 2007 5:33 PM EST up 0 recs

Your Analysis

Your analysis seems solid on the surface, but it fails to take into account several factors, like the injury status of the teams involved when the game was played. For example, I don't discredit the Wizards for the losses to Charlotte, even though Charlotte was a bad team, because two of the Big 3 were out when those games were played. Also, the Nuggets were a playoff team last year, but it wasn't the playoff squad that the Wizards played when they lost that one. The Big 3 were completely healthy, and they lost to the Nuggets bench. The Big 3 were also healthy and playing their best basketball of the season when they lost to the Hornets. The Hornets were 39-43 that year (mediocre), but the loss was worse when you consider that 2 of their starters were out.

To me, being consistent means consistently beating teams that you outmatch on the floor when the game was played. The Wizards consistently underperformed last season when matched up against inferior opponents. The good news is, the Wizards could get hot and beat just about anybody. Let's hope that happens again this year.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 9, 2007 8:48 AM EST up 0 recs

Right, but

That changes just two games. It still doesn't dramatically affect the main numbers.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Nov 9, 2007 12:15 PM EST up 0 recs

My Examples Were Not Meant to Be Inclusive

I suppose I could go back and document all of the times the Wizards lost or nearly lost against clearly inferior teams last season, but I think my perception after having watched most of the games last season will be confirmed. The poster was trying to make the point that the Wizards were good because they consistently beat bad teams last year, but it is my opinion that the Wizards actually were less consistent than most teams at beating inferior opponents.

I believe if you put up the same analysis of every NBA team from last season, we would see that every team plays better against teams under .500 than they do against teams over .500. That shouldn't surprise anybody. But I think you will also find that the Wizards weren't any better at beating bad teams than other teams that had the same or better record than the Wizards.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 9, 2007 12:36 PM EST up 0 recs

bad losses?

i was also disappointed with the denver loss last year, but keep in mind that the wizards won in OT the night before against LA when gil dropped 60. denver was shorthanded that night, but it's tough to play at that altitude no matter what, and the wiz didn't have anything left after the game the night before. back to backs on west coast road swings are never easy to begin with, so while it was a bad loss, it wasn't an especially bad loss and i don't think you can dismiss the numbers because of it.

same for the new orleans loss. it was a bad loss yes, but it was on the road, and that new orleans team was scrappy last year. i think they had a decent record even when paul, west, and peja were all out of the lineup, especially at home (n.o. was 24-17 at home last year).

the worst loss of last year, BY FAR, was the home loss to portland. i was at that game. worst wizards game i have ever witnessed, and that is saying A LOT.

but a bad loss here and there will happen. i think overall my numbers clearly show that the wiz were a mediocre team that beat up on the bad teams and lost to the good ones. as a fan i want to defend the wizards, and i think they are better than most people give them credit for, but until they get a road win in texas, or play a remotely competitive game against the rockets, or beat miami or new jersey when either team is at full strength, i'll painfully acknowledge they are team that has thrived on the mediocrity of the eastern conference.

as a fan i think they have the potential to be better than that, but i don't think they have been thus far. and this is just the regular season we are talking about here, not the playoffs, where the wiz have been a huge disappointment.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 11, 2007 6:42 PM EST up 0 recs

Sort Of Disagree With First Two Posts

I agree with a lot of the points jvflail made, but take exception to this one:

Should our organization's best case scenario be to eek out a division title in the NBA's JV division and whimper from the playoffs in round 1? I'd rather play for added ping-pong balls in the Derrick Rose sweepstakes.

I don't think any team should tank their season just to have a better chance at acquiring a draft pick. The whole reason the NBA uses the lottery system is so teams will not do exactly that. Even if we did get the first pick, is a point guard really going to solve the Wizards problems? I don't think so.

That being said, I completely agree with your 2nd point. Ernie's inability to upgrade this team this off-season is coming back to haunt the Wizards in a big way. The East does appear to be a lot better at this point, and the Wizards appear to actually be worse than last season. I hope for a turnaround, but I'm not very optimistic at this point.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 8, 2007 10:54 AM EST 0 recs