Why we're better
Through 20 games last year, with a healthy Gilbert Arenas and Etan Thomas, this team was 9-11. With yesterday's win over the Nets, this team moved to 10-10 over the same 20-game stretch, even though Gilbert and Etan have been injured, leaving the team without enough bodies to practice on occassion.
What gives? The Wizards were once known for their inconsistency, but they've been incredibly consistent this year, beating teams they should beat and falling, albeit competitively, in the games they should lose (save for the Dallas game). To be honest, when I heard about Arenas' injury, I was hopeful we'd stay afloat, but I was pessimistic about the chances of that happening. Now, I'm a believer in the future of this team, no matter what happens with Arenas' injury and contract situation.
In order, the reasons why we've stayed afloat.
Caron Butler
I am simply amazed by how much his game has grown from this season to last. If you asked me one guy who's production would remain constant this year compared to last year, I would have probably said Butler. That wasn't to belittle his game, but he was dropping 21 and 8 as a third option in the first half of the season last year. I figured that was as good as it gets, especially considering how efficiently he was shooting the ball last year.
Somehow, even though defenses are keying on him with Arenas out, and even though he's shooting longer shots, Butler is shooting even more efficiently. It's amazing to see him work all offseason on developing his three-point shot and immediately go from being a career 30 percent shooter to a 47 percent one. You figure that he will rely more and more on his jumper as his athleticism starts to go away (a la Antawn Jamison), but it's shocking to see this transition happen so quickly. I mean, Caron has a 49% eFG% on jumpers this season. The incredible shooting explains his entire offensive improvement, because he isn't using more possessions, and he drew a higher percentage of fouls last year than this year.
I keep thinking to myself that he can't keep up his shooting streak, and I keep seeing it never happen. Like Kevin Martin, Butler almost never forces bad shots, yet unlike Martin, Butler does more than just score. He's remarkably unselfish, and even though he's hanging out on the perimeter more this year, he's still among the best rebounding wingmen in the league. Perhaps we just have to accept that Butler is a remarkably efficient player that defies the odds of hot shooting.
Right now, Butler's playing as well, if not better, than Gilbert ever played. More than anything, that's keeping us afloat.
Eddie Jordan's maturation as a coach
Last season was not a good one for Eddie Jordan. He horribly mismanaged his bench, killed many games with silly small-ball tactics, and showed an unwillingness to adjust to game situations. This season started off just as badly, as he kept trotting Gilbert out for 40 minutes a night no matter the state of his knee. With a capable backup in Antonio Daniels there waiting to play a major role, suffice to say, Eddie blew it.
But since the Gilbert injury, I've been pleasantly surprised at his coaching chops. Yesterday was really the first time we saw a lot of smallball, and with Andray Blatche struggling so much, it was probably the right decision. More importantly, however, Eddie has created defined roles for everyone, which was the one thing that killed this team last year. Andray Blatche is finally getting consistent minutes, and naturally, he's had a fantastic start to the season. Brendan Haywood is consistently playing 30 minutes a game, and he also is having his best season. Roger Mason has become the designated three-point man, and he's strung together a couple of nice games. Most importantly, however, Nick Young has become a regular part of the rotation, and for those 15 minutes or so he plays, Eddie is turning him loose, taking advantage of his best NBA-ready skill.
Sure, it would be nice if AD, Caron, and Antawn Jamison played fewer minutes, but Eddie has no choice in that regard. Without Gilbert, Eddie has given everyone a defined role, and everyone, with the exception of DeShawn Stevenson, has responded.
Brendan Haywood's defensive rebounding
Probably one you didn't think of right off the top of your head, but for all the things he's done well, Haywood's biggest improvement has been on the defensive glass. The Wizards' defense is still not great, but they've at least risen to 22nd in the league in points allowed/100 possessions. The major reason? They're allowing opponents to grab just 25.3 percent of available rebounds, down from 29 percent last season. Haywood himself hasn't seen much of a spike in his rebounding numbers, but he's been doing an excellent job of putting his body on a man and allowing someone else to grab the rebound. And when Haywood goes out, Andray Blatche has done a great job of picking up the slack. Their work banging bodies inside explains how we're actually grabbing defensive rebounds, even with our best rebounder statistically last year, Etan Thomas, out.
No more stiffs
Jarvis Hayes, Michael Ruffin, and Calvin Booth were the pu-pu platter off the bench, and I don't think it's too unfair to suggest that they cost the Wizards wins last year. To a certain degree, Eddie had no choice but to overwork the starters with those guys as his best bench options. Ernie Grunfeld's campaign to infuse the second unit with youth has paid immediate dividends. Andray Blatche has been outstanding off the bench, and so has Young. Darius Songaila is doing his Songaila-type things that don't necessarily show up in his individual stats, and even Roger Mason has played well recently. Eddie deserves credit for handing Blatche and Young very defined roles, but those players also deserve credit for stepping up to the challenge.
If I had to weigh each of these factors, I'd put 60 percent of the credit on Butler, 20 percent on Eddie, and 10 percent each on the defensive rebounding and the lack of stiffs. The great thing is, save for Butler perhaps cooling off, there's a high degree of likelihood that these factors continue to play out over the course of the season. Simply put, it's exciting to be a Wizards fan again.
Any other factors I missed? Discuss.
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Comments
Caron is LEGIT
I am especially happy that you didn't attribute their relative success this year to Antawn Jamison. To be honest, I think he jacks up a lot more shots than he should. He still has those silly, awkward floaters in the lane, and he thinks he's some 3-point shooter. Although he's shooting 35% from 3P% (which isn't terribly bad), when he misses, he misses badly.
Caron needs to get the ball more often! AD and "I can't feel my face" should not be creating their own shots. Get the ball to Caron more! He will score 40+ points. He is LEGIT.
by se7en on Dec 11, 2007 2:21 AM EST 0 recs
caron
Imagine combining jermaine oneal and caron butler
by Wooz on Dec 11, 2007 2:28 AM EST 0 recs
gil's absence
by billyjoe on Dec 11, 2007 6:45 AM EST 0 recs
Gee, thank goodness we lost that Gilbert Arenas!
And those things all may be true, but since no one wishes an injury on Gil, could they have happened without Arenas going out?
Plus, is Caron really playing as well or better than Gil ever did? I don't know...there've been plenty of games the past 3 1/2 years where Zero just put the Wiz on his shoulders. Caron's been awesome, but I'm not sure he's there yet.
(Not to take anything away from the analysis, Prada--well done).
by Doctor Dribbles on Dec 11, 2007 9:32 AM EST 0 recs
That wasn't supposed to be the subtext
I don't really know how this team would respond with Gilbert, and I don't think anyone really knows, to be honest. We kind of can only go by what happened when Gil went out in the past, and those results aren't pretty. If I had to speculate, I would say there might be some friction, but ultimately, things would work out.
One thing's for sure, though. They aren't playing well right now because of Gilbert's absence. Like you said, as good as Caron has been, he hasn't carried the team like Gilbert has.
by Pradamaster on
Dec 11, 2007 1:30 PM EST
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Responding more to mutterings than post
But with every win, the better the team plays...that subtext IS going to emerge as the conventional wisdom, especially because most fans have a short memory. Some reader on ESPN's rankings wrote, "Arenas going down was probably the best thing that could have happened for the Wizards." Really? Like trading AI (and going on a late-season run that meant nothing) was the best thing that could have happened to the Sixers?
I'm thrilled Caron's grabbed the spotlight, and think a well-rounded team is more fun to watch, not to mention more consistent. But Arenas is our superstar, a three-time All-Star at 25, and having him healthy, in DC for six more years, and buying into the system would seem to be a far better scenario.
Basically, things that we BF readers already know; WWL readers, not so much.
by Doctor Dribbles on
Dec 11, 2007 5:01 PM EST
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Don't forget
by hotplate on Dec 11, 2007 10:24 AM EST 0 recs
u guys are crazy to think we better without gil
by chadwain on Dec 11, 2007 12:22 PM EST 0 recs
Still pessimistic
However, being at the same point now is much different than being at the same point as the 06 team a couple months from now. The healthy 06 Wiz turned it up in December and January last year. I don't remember what the record was, but it enabled them to go through a horrendous March and April and still make the playoffs. I don't think the short-decked 07 version can repeat the 06 success. I just hope we can keep in the middle of the pack and make a run late in the season.
by jvflail on Dec 11, 2007 12:37 PM EST 0 recs
60% caron? i disagree
to say caron has emerged this year makes it sound like his all-star game appearance last year was a fluke. the wiz were 4-15 last year with caron out of the lineup. like gilbert, caron was lights out during the winning streak (i believe he was shooting around 50% before it tapered off). i argue that we can more afford to lose gilbert because we can plug in antonio daniels. if we lose caron, who do we plug in at small forward?
antawn jamison is arguably having a career year this season. he should receive all-star consideration. caron should make a repeat appearance. if gil went down last year and we had both caron and aj in the lineup, i imagine those guys would have stepped up their numbers. i don't think this is anything new. those guys are the backbone of this team.
like most people on this board, i feel better about the state of the wizards, but mostly because the wizards have more quality players on the roster, with young and blatche having big futures ahead of them. i think that leads to the improved team basketball we are seeing, more than the absence of gilbert, and more than caron or antawn being significantly better than last year.
the thing i wonder about is if we plug gilbert back into the lineup, we'll be better, but will we really be that much closer to competing with phoenix and san antonio who already outclassed us this season? i'm not so sure. we beat the suns in phoenix last year after they were stuck in a blizzard in denver for three days, but remember that the suns came back and smoked the wizards at home.
it'll be interesting to see what happens when gilbert comes back with this squad, that's for sure. until then, i hope we continue to improve with the roster we have out there right now, which i think is a pretty good one.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 11, 2007 3:17 PM EST 0 recs
We Have One Starting Center
by oneal286 on Dec 12, 2007 4:55 AM EST 0 recs










