Competition discussion: Atlanta

by Pradamaster on Aug 24, 2007 2:11 AM EDT in Team Analysis

The season is still two months away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next month or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Atlanta.

Last Year's Record: 30-52

In: Al Horford (draft), Acie Law (draft)
Out: Royel Ivey, Slava Medvedenko (yes, that Slava Medvedenko)

Projected Starting Lineup: Tyronn Lue, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Zaza Pachulia.
Bench (in no particular order): Acie Law, Speedy Claxton, Anthony Johnson, Josh Childress, Salim Stoudamire, Al Horford, Shelden Williams, Solomon Jones, Lorenzen Wright.

So what do we think? What do you think their record will be? Is Law the answer at point guard? How soon will Horford take the power forward position from Marvin Williams? Can Josh Smith shake off his immaturity and finally put it all together? Will Joe Johnson take another step forward? Can Zaza Pachulia finally have a bad game against us?

Personally, I think there's too much talent here to win any fewer than 35 games if everyone stays relatively healthy, but the point guard position will kill them. I actually like them more than Orlando, to be honest. They were killed by injuries last year -- Johnson missed 25 games, Lue and Childress missed 26 and 27 respectively, Claxton was out for half the year, and Marvin Williams missed 18 -- and still managed to win 4 more games than the year before. Sure, that's not saying much, but there's talent there. I just really don't like Acie Law at the point. With all the athletes they have, they need a point guard that is comfortable playing up-tempo, and Law's not that guy. Texas A&M played at the 235th-fastest pace in the nation last year, squarely in the bottom third percentile, and that was mostly because Law was so crafty in the halfcourt. What this team really needs is a bigger point that can also push the ball (think Andre Miller or even Javaris Crittenton), and none of their three points fit the bill. That'll ultimately cause them to fall short of the playoffs, but Horford is a stud, Smith is so athletic, Johnson is one of the league's most underrated players, and Pachulia is becoming a solid big man.

I say 38-44. What say you?

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Comments

Hawks

Aren't they ready for a new logo? When I see it, I think the Atlanta Pac Men not the Atlanta Hawks. I do like the red uni's though. They should definitely keep the colors.

by hotplate on Aug 24, 2007 8:49 AM EDT 0 recs

No, that's an old logo

They actually are getting new ones this year.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Aug 24, 2007 9:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

35-47

I agree that Atlanta has some talented players, but they seem more like a fantasy team -- a collection of pieces -- than a winning team. Johnson's and Smith's all-around skills may make it easier to blend that talent together, but if Law isn't a starter, then the Hawks have 4 (four!) backup point guards. (I can't consider Lue, Claxton or Johnson a starter). That's not the recipe for NBA success.

One of the Wizards' main problems is their penchant to play to the level of the competition, so I can see Washington dropping a cople of games against an inferior team that has some individual talent, but I don't think the Hawks will be a contender in the East yet. The talent they have is undeniable, though, and they seem bound to break through at some point, so watch them prove me wrong.

by Vanilla Gorilla on Aug 24, 2007 9:08 AM EDT 0 recs

33-49

I just don't see them getting that much better. While I think Horford and Law IV will have an impact eventually - I'm not buying that its going to be a big one this year.

V.G. is right, this is a team with a lot of talent - but not a well put together team. The Hawks kind of remind me of a young Knicks team, without the bad contracts. They just have a logjam of people at the 3 and 4, and no way of putting together a clear rotation. Also, I gotta disagree with Vanilla on one point - Joe Johnson is a starting 2 guard, and a good one at that (even if I don't really like him). So that's three backup point guards.

The key to getting this team to perform well would be coaching, but they've got... Mike Woodson.

Could this team surprise us? Yeah, the talent is definately there, but I haven't seen anything that makes me want to pick them as a sleeper this year.

by mamemimo on Aug 24, 2007 9:35 AM EDT 0 recs

Clarification

I ignored the number of Johnsons on the Hawks. I was including Anthony Johnson in my list of backup PGs. I certainly recognize Joe's status as a quality 2.

by Vanilla Gorilla on Aug 24, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up 0 recs

Guilty of the same....

I completely forgot about Anthony Johnson. I thought you were talking about using JJ as a spot point guard, remember when he was supposed to be their starting point?

by mamemimo on Aug 24, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

good analogy

another one that occurs to me is the Clippers a few years back. I'm always more impressed by Atlanta's bench than I am by their starters. A team with that many quality players fighting for PT in the same spots is going to have chemistry issues. There's tons of talent there, but I don't think they're ever going to put it together into a winning season. What's a lot more likely is that a number of these players will eventually get shipped off elsewhere through trades or free agency, and at that point we'll see what they're really capable of.

Low 30s, maybe even high 20s.

by sierradave on Aug 24, 2007 12:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

12-70

Death to the Hawks :)

Actually I think they will definitely suffer some bad luck and win 27 games.

07-08 Reg Season Stndgs(predicted 8/6/07) 1 Chi 52-30 2 Was 51-31 3 Cle 50-32 4 Bos/Det 48-34 6 Tor/Mia 47-35 8 NJ 44-40 9 NY/Orl 42-42

by kdp922 on Aug 24, 2007 12:31 PM EDT 0 recs

I like the way you think

Wiz at 51-31, #2 in the East.

RE: Sierradave's assessment: I guess Jason Terry would be exhibit 1A for that.

by Vanilla Gorilla on Aug 24, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

34-48

Atlanta is better than they were a year ago, the problem is that just about everyone else got better as well. Definitely a team for the future, but they still have a little growing to do.

by JakeTheSnake on Aug 24, 2007 5:18 PM EDT 0 recs

36-46

we all know the strength of Zaza.

He WILL carry them to mediocrity.

DAGGER!

by SP Yup on Aug 24, 2007 9:07 PM EDT 0 recs

So low 30s is what we're saying?

I can get behind that. If all breaks well, they can get 40 wins, much like that 2001/02 Clippers team Dave referenced (the one of the two that actually performed decently).

Lots of good points being made, especially with the point guard sitation. It seems to me that Lue's been pretty decent for them individually when he's healthy, but he's too small and needs the ball in his hands too much for that team. I feel like they'd be better off complementing Joe Johnson with a smallish veteran spot-up shooter (e.g. Derek Fisher, Damon Jones, Sarunas Jasikevicius), especially if Mike Woodson is going to insist on a half-court game (despite their athletes, the Hawks were 24th in pace factor last year). If I were Billy Knight, I'd find a way to get Sarunas cheaply by dealing one of my point guards, seeing as the Warriors are looking for a backup to Baron. Ty Lue for Sarunas, for example, works with the cap.

That's why I think Law is going to be a disaster here-- he's basically a taller version of Lue. He's a good creator, but he needs to handle the ball a lot to make plays. Joe Johnson isn't as good a passer as Law, but he's close and is twice the scorer. It simply doesn't pay to have Law creating when Johnson is better.

If Atlanta ran the triangle, they'd be unstoppable. Johnson would be a poor man's MJ, Smith could play the Pippen role, and Horford would be Horace Grant. Pachulia can fill the 5 spot well, but they don't have a point guard to make it work. Too bad.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Aug 25, 2007 12:03 AM EDT 0 recs

Since it's still the top post I'll throw this out

I think most of us agree that Acie Law is a good PG, but a bad fit in the ATL. With that in mind, I ask you all this: If you were Billy Knight, would you have drafted differently?

I ask this primarily because I have no idea what I would do if put in that situation.

by JakeTheSnake on Aug 25, 2007 12:52 AM EDT 0 recs