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Competition discussion: Chicago

The season is still two months away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little).  We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else.  In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next month or so.  We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z.  Today's team: Chicago.


Last year's record: 49-33
Playoffs: Beat Miami 4-0, lost to Detroit 4-2.

In: Joe Smith (free agency), Joakim Noah (draft), Aaron Gray (draft), JamesOn Curry (draft)
Out: P.J. Brown (free agency), Malik Allen (free agency), Michael Sweetney (free agency)

Projected Starting Lineup: Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace.
Bench (in no particular order): Chris Duhon, JamesOn Curry, Thabo Sefolosha, Adrian Griffin, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, Viktor Khryapa, Joakim Noah, Aaron Gray.

So what do we think?  Is this team simply doomed to be very good, but not great?  Do they have enough scoring?  Did it make sense to re-sign Andres Nocioni and draft Joakim Noah when it didn't solve the dreaded "low-post scorer" question?  Can Ben Gordon and Luol Deng take another step forward?

Personally, this is the best team in the East, in the regular season.  I'm really not all that concerned about the lack of a "low-post scorer" (and I put that in quotes for a reason).  Yes, they will have nights where the jumpers aren't falling and they can't score a point, but more often than not, they'll outwork teams with their defense and motion offense.  I'm not in love with the Joe Smith signing, but I love Joakim Noah on this team.  He probably should have been the fourth or fifth pick in the draft, and he somehow fell to a club that won't overextend him.  Noah seems destined to be a great role player, and not a superstar, but if he went somewhere like Seattle, a lot would have been thrust upon him right away.  Here, he can focus on rebounding, passing, playing defense, and providing scoring in a pinch, and I think it's a role suited for him.  Combine that with Tyrus Thomas, who showed some real signs last season, and I don't know who will score against the Bulls' reserve front line.

What'll cripple them from winning in the playoffs, however, is that Nocioni re-signing.  It simply makes no sense to pay a backup small forward 7.5 million dollars annually, especially one as overrated as Nocioni.  He's a very good  catch-and-shoot guy, and he has a knack for making big plays, but he dribbles too much and roams defensively, thereby overextending the rest of the defense.  Playing Nocioni at power forward makes little sense as well, not only because he can't rebound, but because it'll mean less minutes for the far more productive Thomas.  Down the line, the Bulls will have salary cap issues after re-signing Deng and Gordon, and it'll be difficult to acquire that final piece, thanks to the Nocioni contract.

But for this year, they're the best in the East.  They should have been last year, but got unlucky in close games and also had that slow start.  For now, I'll say 56-26 and an Eastern Conference Finals loss.  

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54-28
Agreed, they're the best team in the east.  Agreed, they'll probably have the best record.  But that being said, I still don't think they're all that good.

Maybe as a wizards fan I'm predisposed to ignore defense, but I think Gordon and Deng are overrated.  For this team to win, they need to be Detroit from a few years ago, with a bunch of good-but-not-great players combining to put together great five-man basketball.  I just don't think they're going to get there.  

I certainly hope this team ends up regretting Nocioni.  The guy might be the diritiest player in the league.

by sierradave on Aug 30, 2007 7:59 PM EDT   0 recs

I'd add something
But I think I'm completely with you here.  I'm still not sold on Noah, I think he'll be good but I'm still wrestling with whether or not Hawes would've been a better fit.  There's not a doubt in my mind that Noah is a better player than him but maybe Hawes might have been able to pan out in Chicago where Wallace could mask some of his deficiencies.

Right now, I'd say that Noah was the best choice but I'm still not at the point where I'd say definitively that he was the best choice.  Ultimately, I don't think if you swapped one for the other it would make that much of a difference for this year at least.

by JakeTheSnake on Aug 30, 2007 10:51 PM EDT   0 recs

48-34
I think I'm the only one not sipping the Bulls' Kool Aid.

Don't get me wrong, they've got a lot of solid players - but who's their go-to guy? Heinrich? Gordon? Deng? I think that they are due for a slight recession. Teams will stop ignoring Deng and actually D him up (unlike Miami did) and I think Ben Wallace will regress some.

I didn't buy Noah for this team at all, however. I think that he is not going to be a backup center in this league, so he's going to take minutes from Tyrus Thomas as they both go for that "energy guy" spot. I understand Noah's a Scott Skiles player, but I think he's in for a rude awakening at this level - he's Anderson Varejao at best.

by mamemimo on Aug 31, 2007 9:26 AM EDT   0 recs

This time, I'll ditto mamemimo
I'm not drinking that juice neether. No go-to guy, and I think they've gotten enough ink that they'll get opponents' A game most nights. 48-34 sounds about right to me.

Have to disagree with you on Noah though. Sure, he can't score, but he has a real feel for the game that I can't say I've seen from Varejao.

by Vanilla Gorilla on Aug 31, 2007 10:21 AM EDT   0 recs

82-0
I thought I had a monopoly on bashing the Nocioni signing! I disagree that it'll effect them during the playoffs, unless you mean the inability to make a blockbuster deal (because of Noc's contract) will keep them from winning in the playoffs ever. Which is debateable.

As far as the comments:

I don't get how teams will now learn to guard Luol Deng. He doesn't even allow you to guard him, he just shoots when he's open and makes a ridiculous amount of those shots. Teams guard him now, if he's covered he moves the ball. Eventually it can swing back and find him, or he gets his in transition.

the guy to guard is Gordon. If the Bulls unleashed him he'd be a poor-man's Arenas. But they keep him off the point, a right move for the team's sake. I guess my point is he's good, and can be the 'go-to' guy if he keeps getting to the line.

So either that or hoping Deng gets a post-up game.

I agree with the general premise of the thread though. They don't really need a 'go-to-low-post-scorer-guy' to be a great team, but it'd be nice. The frontcourt will lose most free throw contests to 8th graders but Prada's right that it will just destroy teams on defense some nights. I'm not a NCAA-wonk so I have no idea what Noah can eventually do, but I know he can run and jump, which is the standard M.O. for Bulls bigmen.

a reason to supress win total is that I think there are fewer cupcakes on the schedule this year. Even Charlotte, Indy, Milwaukee, NewYork are pretty good.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 31, 2007 5:01 PM EDT   0 recs

Yeah
I guess what I was trying to get at with Noc is that the Bulls may be hamstrung eventually with the cap if they re-sign Deng and Gordon (as they should), and Noc's 7.5 million dollar deal now can't be used to address future weaknesses (e.g. that "low-post scorer").  

And more generally, I almost think the Bulls have too many guys that need minutes.  Noc on his own is a decent player, but when he's taking away power forward minutes from Tyrus Thomas, he suddenly isn't all that great anymore.  And Deng isn't going to need to rest all that much, so where else will Noc play?  The 2?  I just don't see it.

They should have just ditched him and signed a cheap small forward (perhaps the dreaded James Posey, or more likely someone like Matt Barnes or Mikhael Pietrus) and saved a lot of money.  

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Aug 31, 2007 5:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

preaching to the choir
I see the reason for Noc THIS season, they're trying to win the East and as much as I adore Tyrus Thomas it's still risky to give him a lot of minutes.

Plus if they sign a SF they wouldn't have been able to give the full MLE (they had Bird rights with Noc) to Joe Smith, and maybe that means they don't get him at all and they settle for Chris Mihm or something.

But you're right, looking at how cheap backup forwards have been this offseason the Nocioni deal looks crazier and crazier.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 31, 2007 7:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

and cap-wise
I think they're fine in regards to the cap. They're going to be capped out no matter what, so keeping Noc's 'salary slot' can help for future trades. But it's a 5-year deal, and who's gonna trade for that?

It's a huge problem if they're going to be afraid of the luxury tax. But the Bulls are 'rich' in terms of NBA franchises, so hopefully they can swallow the tax hit if they're paying for a contender.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 31, 2007 7:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

50-32
No go-to guy????

You guys obviously didn't see Ben Gordon DESTROY our      
'Zards last season. He hit something ridiculous like 7-7 from three. The speed in his release is third in the NBA behind Michael Redd and Ray Allen.

I never liked Joakim Noah. Huge bust waiting to happen. He went from being one of the most athletic guys on the court to an average defender/rebounder in the NBA. He has no post-up moves, nothing.

Joe Smith needs a nurse and a catheter. Retire already. They should be starting Tyrus Thomas instead.

I want to punch Andres Nocioni in the face.

They have practically NO depth at either guard position. JamesOn Curry is not at an NBA caliber yet, and Chris Duhon can pass, but can't hit the broad side of a barn shooting.

That being said, they are better than us.

DAGGER!

by SP Yup on Aug 31, 2007 8:47 PM EDT   0 recs

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