D-[fence sign]?
You know what I can't stand? When conventional wisdom proves to be correct.
For example, conventional wisdom suggests that the Wizards can't play defense (and thus should be referred to as the Wizar*s). Actually, conventional wisdom suggests that not only can't the Wizard play defense, but that it's downright laughable to watch them try.
Conventional wisdom also suggests that the Wizards won't go anywhere until they improve defensively, because, after all, defense wins championships.
Damn, I hate it when everyone else is right.
At the end of last year, we identified improving the defense as the number one goal for this offseason. As we mentioned there, the defensive efficiency has gotten worse every year since 2004/2005, going from 19th that year, to 23rd in 05/06, and finally to 28th last year. It's true that the "defense wins championships" moniker is problematic, but you can't win anything meaningful when your defense is historically bad. Using last year, Utah and Golden State were the only teams to advance past the first round with defensive efficiencies below the league average.
The implication from that conclusion we made last year is that the only thing that's preventing the Wizards from making the next step is their defense. Yes, bench scoring was an issue, and yes, it would be nice if we had a better offensive big man, but the offense was more than fine last year as is. If the offense stayed exactly the same, while the defense improved by 8-9 spots, that's an improvement of at least ten wins in my book.
But let's move past theory. How can the defense improve, and more importantly, is there any reason to believe that things will be different this year?
Last year, we identified three areas that have to get better for the Wizards to improve defensively: defending scoring guards, improving the interior defense, and compensating for the smallish nature of the forwards. Seeing as how the defense was historically bad last year, those three reasons invariably covered everything. Now that the offseason is finished, it's unclear whether any upgrades have been made in those departments. Michael Ruffin, Jarvis Hayes, and Calvin Booth have been replaced by Dominic McGuire, Nick Young, and Oleksiy Pecherov. Of the latter three, only McGuire is seen as a good defender. Rather than personnel upgrades, which seemed to be what we were calling for, Ernie's hoping that new assistant coach Randy Ayers can instill the commitment himself, which obviously isn't an easy task.
So now, put yourself in Randy Ayers' shoes. We can all agree that the mindset needs to change, but that's simply not going to be enough. There needs to be a scheme change, as well as an emphasis of one aspect of the defense as a point of emphasis that will simultaneously improve the others. The question is, where is that point of emphasis?
Is it defending point guards? If that's the case, Ayers has to convince Gilbert Arenas to commit more to his defense, and he needs to improve the defense of the pick and roll.
Is it with the forwards? If so, perhaps playing Andray Blatche and McGuire more is the answer. Additionally, perhaps Caron Butler should be focusing more on defense rather than on his scoring, but is that really a good idea?
Or is it with the centers? If so, then shouldn't Brendan Haywood be playing 30+ minutes every single game. I mean, defensive plus/minus numbers from the last three years can't lie, can they?
If you're Randy Ayers, what would you do? Below the jump, a few ideas.
1. Play Brendan Haywood 30 minutes a game.
Offense be damned! Inconsistency be damned! For the sake of the defense, Haywood has to play more than Etan Thomas. Those plus/minus numbers simply don't lie; when Haywood is in the game, the Wizards' defense is significantly better. Put it this way: with Haywood in the game, the Wizards' defense was as good as the 16th-best defense in the league last year according to efficiency. When Haywood was out of the game, the Wizards' defense was equivalent to the worst. Playing Haywood more, in turn, will help Thomas, because he can focus on going all out for a shorter amount of time. If Etan plays fewer minutes, he's less likely to get injured. It's a win-win, if you ask me.
2. Start trapping pick and rolls.
Gilbert Arenas is a very bad defender, and he should be held accountable, but so should the big men that are not helping him get over screens. The Wizards' defense works best if they create turnovers, and trapping more pick and rolls will do that. Perhaps this means we need to see more of Andray Blatche, or perhaps this means we need Antawn Jamison and Haywood to be held accountable. No matter what, though, only good can result.
3. In general, play the bench more.
The less time starters play, the more energy they have for both ends. Additionally, it's easier to tell a bench guy to go all out defensively, so that will definitely improve things.
Any more ideas? Shout 'em out in the comments section. And please, can we make them more substantial than "Gilbert's gotta get committed" or "We need to want to play defense more."
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Gilbert's gotta get committed!
I think our half court D needs more improvement than our transition D. I don't have any stats to back that up, but base it on how embarrassing we look in the half court sometimes. And improving the half court D starts with containing penetration by the ball handler, who is usually Gilbert's man. Too many times, Gilbert's man beats him and the rest of the guys are left trying to rotate to cover up. The result is either a dunk or 3 pointer. If he would just stay in front of his man, the other guys would have a fighting chance.
Which is not to say that everyone else doesn't need to improve also, just that the initial breakdown is too often his. Gilbert does have the ability to improve. I don't really think Jamison does. Butler can be adequate but won't be great.
I'm hoping that a healthy dose of Blatche, 25 minutes a game or so subbing for both Jamison and Butler, will help. I'm thinking that a Haywood/Blatche tandem could be almost formidable. I agree that the team does play better D with Haywood on the floor and the proper breakdown of minutes should be 30 for Brendan and 15 or so for Etan.
So, my 3 point program to moderately improved D would be:
- Get committed Gilbert!
- More Blatche
- More Haywood
by hotplate on Sep 20, 2007 6:52 PM EDT 0 recs
No, that's a good answer
by Pradamaster on
Sep 20, 2007 7:18 PM EDT
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Here's an idea
by JakeTheSnake on Sep 20, 2007 10:51 PM EDT 0 recs
Defense wins championships?
But enough pimpage of my own blog.
As it happens, I've done some pretty extensive tracking of the Wizards defense over the past 3 seasons. Gilbert is definitely a problem defensively, but (as the team results show) he's not the only one. Daniels, for example, tracks as a worse defender overall than Gilbert, particularly when it comes to containing dribble penetration.
It's important not to overlook scheme. For example, the Wizards made a fetish of protecting the paint last season. They did this by collapsing to the paint when the ball went inside, and by sagging to the paint on weakside defense. The result? Inside FG% dropped a very small amount, but perimeter shooters got open looks because their defenders had either left them in help D or had sagged too far and couldn't recover.
When it comes to containing dribble penetration, it's a good idea to define what that means. For good defenses, it does NOT mean preventing penetration. The best defense of the past decade (the Spurs) don't try to stop all dribble penetration -- in fact, they encourage it. Their defense is designed to force ball handlers to the sideline, then to the baseline -- into help defense. The perimeter defender's job is to contest 3pt attempts and keep their man from penetrating to the middle.
The Spurs force rules are the same now as they were when Popovich took over the team a decade ago. Same defense year after year, game after game, possession after possession. The Wizards have had as many defensive sets as offensive. Responsibilities change with the variety of defenses, and the force rules change as well. They attempted to simplify the system last season with Bill Berry, but they still had a much larger array of defensive sets than most teams in the NBA.
There's a wisdom to the Spurs' system. Tracking shows that taller players force more misses than smaller players (duh). The Spurs' system, which runs shooters off the 3pt line and forces penetration to prescribed areas, means that a greater proportion of shots will be challenged by a tall guy. The predictability of their system means that the big can anticipate where he needs to be, and that he'll have less ground to cover to be in proper help position. And, perhaps most importantly, their system emphasizes challenging shots, NOT forcing turnovers. The numbers clearly show that defense in the NBA is about forcing misses. Not steals, not forcing turnovers, not creating "disruption," not "playing with force."
In other words, the Wizards are doing a lot wrong when it comes to scheme. So, how to make the defense better? Implement a better scheme (the best defenses in recent years were all doing the same thing -- Cleveland's defensive coordinator last year was Hank Egan, who held the same position in San Antonio in recent years), insist that the players execute, and get the right personnel on the floor. And yes, that means Haywood. In my tracking of individual defensive numbers, Haywood shows up as the team's best defender by a significant margin. He's the one guy on the team who consistently forces misses.
by TheSecretWeapon on Sep 21, 2007 9:44 AM EDT 0 recs
Nice post
And for the record, the whole "defense wins championships" line was dropped in sardonically. It was a reference to that Hoopsworld article (which I hated, by the way). It's problematic, as you said.
by Pradamaster on
Sep 21, 2007 11:13 AM EDT
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Thanks
by hotplate on Sep 22, 2007 4:28 PM EDT 0 recs













