Competition discussion: Houston

by Pradamaster on Sep 28, 2007 12:36 AM EDT in Team Analysis

The season is still two months away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next month or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Houston.

Last year's record: 52-30.
Playoffs: Lost to Utah 4-3.

In: Mike James (trade), Luis Scola (trade), Steve Francis (free agent), Aaron Brooks (draft), Jackie Butler (trade), Carl Landry (draft), Justin Reed (trade).
Out: Juwan Howard (trade), Vassilis Spanoulis (trade).

Projected starting lineup: Mike James, Tracy McGrady, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Yao Ming.
Bench (in no particular order): Steve Francis, Rafer Alston, Aaron Brooks, John Lucas, Luther Head, Kirk Snyder, Bonzi Wells, Steve Novak, Justin Reed, Chuck Hayes, Dikembe Mutumbo, Carl Landry, Jake Tsakalides, Jackie Butler.

So what do we think? On paper, they look good, but can it all come together? Will Rick Adelman make them better? Why do they have four point guards? Why did they sign Steve Francis? Can T-Mac and Yao stay healthy? How well will Luis Scola translate to the NBA game? Will Bonzi Wells contribute? How long will it take for them to mesh?

No analysis now, just a predicted record of 57-25. Discuss.

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Comments

46-38

I think Houston is in a for a big letdown this year. Everything that's happened this offseason makes them seem better on paper, but I just don't think they'll put it all together and be a legit contender when it's all said and done.

Oh, and Rafer Alston gets arrested again before the end of the year. You heard it here first.

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by JakeTheSnake on Sep 28, 2007 12:41 AM EDT 0 recs

44-38, or 46-36?

Which one?

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Sep 28, 2007 12:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

Both

Yao Ming will obscure the refs view of the scoreboard and as a result the Rockets will unknowingly play an extra two games because the refs won't know when to stop the clock.

...46-36

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by JakeTheSnake on Sep 28, 2007 12:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

50-32

A lot depends on Yao and McGrady staying healthy, obviously, but those two guys put a lot of pressure on defense when they're on the court together. A good offensive coach like Adelman will make this even more of an advantage.

I am a big fan of Battier, and Scola looked damn good in international play this summer. Moving an energy guy like Chuck Hayes to the bench is a big plus. He's a limited player, but he can make an impact by coming off the bench and acting like a crazy man.

I can't imagine a world in which Mike James starts in front of Steve Francis at the point, but maybe I am just behind the times. Having either of those guys (or Skip to my Lou) at the point is sub-optimal, but I have a hunch the rest of the guys can keep them in line. The rest of the bench is full of question marks (Bonzi? Mutombo? Jackie Butler?), so there's not much margin for error if one of the stars goes down. My bet is that that happens for about 20 games or so, total, but the Rockets will dominate when they're whole.

"Now, obviously individual production does not unilaterally equal better team production, but there's a high level of causation."

by Vanilla Gorilla on Sep 28, 2007 11:14 AM EDT 0 recs

Really?

I guess I'm surprised that both you guys have the Rockets undershooting last year's win total. They won 52 games last year without any semblance of an offense beyond Yao and T-Mac, and by getting Mike James, Luis Scola, and Francis, along with a possible resurgent Bonzi and Adelman as the coach, that weakness appears to have been solved.

And I'm not buying the lack of a bench...Houston could trot out a second unit of Alston, Francis/Luther Head, Bonzi, Chuck Hayes, and Mutumbo, and still win consistently. Mutumbo was really good last year when Yao was hurt, FYI.

If it doesn't work, it's because of all the new pieces, but with Adelman, a coach with a history of meshing egos well, I don't see that happening. This Rockets team has more talent than Adelman's Portland and Sacramento bunches had, on paper.

The other thing that could happen is that T-Mac and Yao miss enough games to lower their winning percentage, causing them to have a difficult road in the playoffs, but I don't see that happening either.

Basically, this feels like T-Mac's redemption year, kind of like 04 was for Garnett. He finally has some perimeter talent that can function without him facilitating everything (James, Francis, and hopefully Wells are like his Cassell/Sprewell), and that'll make him more rested for later.

Just my two cents.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Sep 28, 2007 3:13 PM EDT 0 recs