Eddie Jordan needs to learn from last year's poor start. He's not putting his 5 best players on the floor to give his team the best chance to win.


During last year's 5-game losing streak to start the season, we saw some of the same problems that we see this year. Poor execution. Poor shooting. Poor defensive effort.

But the one thing we see this year that can be fixed right away - that WAS fixed last year - is the rotations.

Let's go back in time to 2007:


@ Indiana      L 110-119   Jamison, Haywood and Butler all had double-doubles. Arenas had 34 points, including a 3 pointer to send the game into overtime. They were competitive, but lost in OT when they missed their first 8 shots from the field, until Butler hit a layup with 9 seconds left.
Despite missing 13 free throws, the Wizards still were competitive and had a chance to win. Starters played well, not much production from the bench (17 points on 7-20 shooting)

 @ Boston      L 83-103  Boston destroys the Wizards in a classic slap in the face after Arenas' braggadario in the Summer. The Wizards never had a chance in this game. 18 bench points (Songaila 13, Young 5 on 1-5 shooting)

Home vs Orlando      L 82-94   The game was very close throughout until about 5 minutes left. After that, Washington missed 10 of their last 12 shots (almost all were contested outside shots) while sending Orlando to the Free Throw line 14 times (they made 13). Orlando tightened up their Defense in the last 5 minutes, and Washington settled for jump shots. A typical Wizards loss. (14 Bench points)

@ New Jersey      L 85-87   Another game where the Wizards had a chance to win a game on the road, but they did not make a play at the end to win it - with Arenas getting the last shot blocked by Carter. Starters played well, not much production from the bench. One of the few games where Haywood did not play well (2 points 3 rebounds in 29 minutes) . 17 bench points (5-18 shooting).

Home vs Denver      L 92-118  A game where Jamison (17 and 12) and Butler (21 points) played well, but Stevenson, Arenas and Young were a combined 6-24 from the field. With shooting like that, the Nuggets coasted to a victory. One of the few games early in the year where the bench played well = 30 bench points (12-30 shooting)

The first 5 games, Eddie used all 11 active healthy players on his roster in every game (except the NJ game, where Dominic McGuire got a DNP-Coaches Decision)
The point I'm trying to make here is that last year the Starters were, for the most part, playing well; while they were getting practically nothing from the bench; but Eddie was still using 11 guys in the rotation.

In the Atlanta game, the Wizards first win, Eddie went to an 8-man rotation.
Same with the next game against the Pacers. Another Win. He stuck with a mostly 8-man rotation

He went to a more compact 8-9 man rotation, and the Wizards started winning. He was playing his top 8 or 9 guys.


Fast forward to this year. The Starters are NOT playing well; and the reserves are; and Eddie is playing 11 guys every night, AGAIN.

Eddie needs to recognize some facts:
1. Nick Young is a better player right now than DeShawn Stevenson; and Nick should be starting and getting the lion's share of the SG minutes.
2. JaVale McGee is a better player right now than Etan Thomas; and JaVale should be starting and getting the lion's share of the Center minutes.
3. Andray Blatche is a Power Forward - not a Center - and he should be used to rest Jamison; or with Jamison in the game at SF to rest Butler.
4. Eddie needs have a heart-to-heart with Antawn Jamison and tell him to stop shooting 3-pointers (24%)... and play more inside. His shooting percentages are down from last year, as are his rebounding numbers.
5. Eddie should consider the BIG lineup that has been tried a couple of times and did well:  McGee, Blatche, Jamison (at SF), Butler (at the 2 guard)... Just because he's an All-Star at SF, does not mean that he can't play well at SG. That line up creates mis-matches all over the floor in the Wizards favor.
6. Eddie needs to tighten his rotations. Guys like Pecherov, McGuire, Songaila and Dee Brown don't need to average 10 minutes per game - like they are doing now - and should only see the floor in blowouts or special situations (foul trouble, special matchups, etc...)
7. Sit Blatche down and tell him you still have confidence in him. STOP telling everyone he has a "unique skill set". Tell him to make the simple play. Pass to a guard to bring the ball up the court. No behind the back passes in traffic. Simplify his game, simplify his thinking. Play hard. Rebound. DUNK. Play Defense. K.I.S.S.

Rotation should be shortened to 8 guys:
Dixon at point (until Daniels is healthy, or until Arenas returns - then Dixon should sit)
Young at SG
Butler at SF (some at SG in big lineups)
Jamison at PF (some at SF in big lineups)
McGee at Center

Main Reserves:
Blatche at PF
Thomas at C   (until Haywood returns, then splinter time for Thomas)
Stevenson at PG & SG


Special situations: Darius Songaila at PF

Getting splinters:
McGuire, Pecherov, Dee Brown

I'm sitting here watching Washington Post Live on Comcast SportsNet. It's about 12:30am - the game is over... Russ Thayler, Chris Miller and Mike Wise are talking about the game... and in the background - - - - -

I see JaVale McGee working on his post moves....

Pecherov is there too - they're both working with Coaches on post moves (spin moves to the paint, and baseline drop steps) - 

And in the corner, Dominic McGuire shooting jumpers....

I don't see anyone else  (Jamison, Butler, Arenas) - so I have to assume that they just decided they needed the work...?!??!  and weren't escorted there by the Vets.

It's 12 freaking 30 in the morning, AFTER they just finished a game a few hours ago... and these young guys are working.

I'm impressed.

Very interesting article on ESPN about the Luxury Tax. Which teams will be paying, and which teams will be collecting..

According to the article , the Toronto Raptors are only $1,100 below the Luxury Tax. They have 13 players with guaranteed contract.  

"This means the team will be going with a skeleton roster for the season -- similar to the Washington Wizards last season -- if they are to avoid the tax."

AND we all know how well  THAT turned out...

From Wizards Insider:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizardsinsider/2008/10/nick_young_targets_friday_retu.html#comments

Young had been sidelined the entire preseason with a sore right knee, which he said yesterday may require surgery in the offseason.

"I'm not trying to do that now. It don't hurt that bad," he said after practice on Sunday. "I just had a lot of fluid in there. [The injury is] not too serious. They said I could get [the surgery] later on, but not now."

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Did anyone else get that sinking feeling in your stomach when you read this?

Ok, ok.... I know. I've been saying all along that Juan could be out of a job at the end of the Preseason..

But new information has just come in that changes all of that.

In a Q&A session today at 11:30am, Ivan Carter answered questions about the Wizards...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/10/16/DI2008101602768.html

I posted the following question:

Luray, Va.: More on the Juan vs. Dermarr...

You've reported that Juan has a "partially guaranteed" contract.

If that means that he will be paid a portion of the contract, regardless if he makes the team -- then obviously, because of Luxury Tax reasons, Dermarr would be out..

On the other hand, if "partially guaranteed" means Juan gets a guarantee AFTER he makes the team -- then things come down to who plays better, and who brings more to the team.

Do you know any particulars about this "partial" guarantee?

Ivan's response provided all the information I needed to change my mind about who will be staying and who will be out of a job:

Ivan Carter: Partial guarantee means he gets a chunk of money regardless of whether he makes the 15-man or not. I'm not sure how much the Wizards would have to eat but I think it's around $400,000 (depending on the number of seasons of service). That money does count against the cap and tax regardless of whether he makes the 15-manor not.  (end of Ivan's answer)

SO- That means

The Wizards are VERY close to the Luxury Tax.... Both Juan Dixon, and Dermarr Johnson would make similar veteran minimum salaries.... but Juan has a partial guarantee; Which Ivan has now explained means he gets paid something even if he does not make the roster.

If the Wizards let Juan go, pay him his guarantee (which counts against the Luxury Tax); and sign Dermarr Johnson to anything except a non-guaranteed contract * - they would be over the Luxury Tax - and Dermarr Johnson is not worth the dollar-for-dollar Tax, AND giving up the tax payment.

*Non Guaranteed - meaning they could release him any time before January 15th and not incur the remainder of his contract. ie: Johnson would only be with the team for a part of the year.

So the question is:

• Do they keep Juan, all year....
• Or do they rent Dermarr Johnson for however long they can afford him under the Tax

Perhaps that's why Ivan reported that Juan was "all but guaranteed" a roster spot.

Editor's Note: I felt this was worth putting on the front page as somewhat of a Public Service Announcement. Thanks to Rook6980 for putting this together. -Truth

Why don't they just drop XXXXX player?

You've heard it before.... Posters asking why the problem with the "Salary Cap" -

Why don't they drop Pecherov and free up Cap Space?  Why don't they just drop McGuire?. Why not just drop Songaila?. Why not just drop (insert player name here)?

The Wizards WON'T just drop Pecherov (or McGuire, or Young, or any other Wizards player under contract) because almost ALL Standard NBA contracts are guaranteed. (The Wizards have 13 players under contract for the 2008-2009 season, and all of them are guaranteed contracts)

In other words, they would still have to pay him, AND his salary would still count against the Salary Cap AND, more importantly, against the Luxury Tax.

So, if they just dropped a player under contract - they would be paying a salary, eating up Cap and Tax space, and getting nothing in return.

Since Arenas is injured, why can't the Wizards just sign another player until he returns?

Again, insert any player name, but the question remains the same. During the regular season, NBA teams must maintain a minimum roster size of 13 players and a maximum roster size of 15 players. Injured players count against the roster size. If the Wizards are at 15, they do not have any roster room to sign another player.

The other consideration is the Luxury Tax. For the 2008-2009 season, the Wizards are extremely close to the Luxury Tax ceiling of $71.15 million - so signing another player, even at a minimum salary might put them over the Tax ceiling.

Last year, when the Wizards were struggling because of so many injuries, many people asked "Why not just go over the Tax ceiling" to sign another player ?

For every dollar that a Team exceeds the Luxury Tax threshold, they must pay a dollar-for-dollar tax. At the end of the year, that money is pooled together and paid to the teams that stayed under the threshold. I believe the 2008 payment was about $3 Million.

So, let's say you're the Wizards GM, and you're right up against the Luxury Tax threshold; but you need to sign another player. You need a PG, because Arenas is injured and Daniels has a bad wrist. You find a D-League rookie that can be a band-aid solution, and sign him to a 1-year deal at the Rookie Minimum of $442,114. But then you have to pay $442,114 into the Luxury Tax pool... At the end of the year, you miss out on the $3 Million payment; So that D-League rookie actually cost your team almost $3.9 Million .

You can see why teams want to avoid the Luxury Tax.

I think Dermarr Johnson, at 6'9", will make the roster instead of Juan Dixon….

And here’s why:
Juan Dixon only brings one thing to the Wizards; scoring off the bench. Dermarr brings much more. He can score (including hit the 3-point shot), but he also can defend, play multiple wing positions, and rebound. In a pinch, he could even play PF against certain teams. Dermarr has had a good Training Camp and two nice exhibition games. Juan has been injured.

Juan is a 6-year vet ($998,398 minimum salary), Dermarr is a 7-year vet ($1,070,118 minimum salary)- so the minimum salaries are about the same…. although keeping Dermarr would cost about $70K more per year… so if the Wizards are THAT close to the Luxury Tax, it could sway the decision to Juan.


The question comes down to: Where is the greatest need…. and where are there question marks…?

I think that, with Gilbert out, there was a question about who could be Antonio’s backup at PG… Juan has some PG skills, and could probably help bring the ball up the court -  but I think that Dee Brown has resoundingly answered the question as to who will backup Antonio.

Other questions are:

Can Nick Young take that next step and backup Stevenson now that Roger Mason is gone ?…

Can McGuire backup Butler at the Small Forward?

Keeping Dermarr Johnson mitigates any risk from either question, as he can play both SG and SF.

I've watched (and listened) to the first two pre-season games - and Eddie Jordan has played around with some interesting lineups...

The Wizards roster is filled with a great mix of skills, talent, speed and size. At one point, Eddie had an extremely long (tall) unit on the floor:

Etan Thomas (C, 6'10"), Andray Blatche (PF?, 7'0"), JaVale McGee (SF?, 7'0"), Dermarr Johnson (SG, 6'9") and Antonio Daniels (PG)....

Later, he used a different big lineup with Pecherov (7'0"), McGee (7'0"), Dermarr Johnson, Linton Johnson and Dee Brown.

He went with a quick lineup: Dee Brown, Linton Johnson, McGuire, McGee and Blatche (talk about shot blocking ability) - this lineup just ran the Grizzlies ragged... and scored a variety of slam dunk, and fast break baskets. This also seemed to be the best Defensive lineup -along with the Dee Brown, Linton Johnson, Dermarr Johnson, McGee, Blatche lineup... (quickness and length)...

Eddie can throw a line up of shooters out there with Pech, Jamison, Stevenson, Butler and Daniels - or Dee Brown - OR bang inside with Thomas, Jamison, Songaila Dermarr and Daniels...

Some of the lineup versatility comes from the fact that several players can play multiple positions.

Blatche can play Center and PF  (and sometimes SF in certain situations)

McGee can play C & PF

Dermarr Johnson can play SG and SF  (and PF in a smallball lineup)

McGuire seems able to defend some bigger SG's, and play SF.

All in all - it's an interesting roster..